| The next potential squeeze on uranium supply | | | | Niger's mineral resources, especially the |
| could come from terrorism, not nature. | | | | country's uranium interests. Uranium |
| | | | comprises more than 70 percent of the |
| The world's seventh and eighth uranium | | | | country's exports. Ironically, Niger derives |
| producing mines are found in the Republic of | | | | 100 percent of its electricity from fossil |
| Niger: the underground Akouta and the open | | | | fuels. The electricity-producing power plant |
| pit Arlit. Together they produced 3434 tonnes | | | | the rebels attacked earlier this year |
| of uranium in 2006, according to the World | | | | generates power to mine uranium. |
| Nuclear Association. This accounted for more | | | | |
| than eight percent of the world's mining | | | | In 1998, the Tuareg nomads were promised |
| production last year. | | | | greater autonomy by the Niamey-based |
| | | | government in southern Niger, but all |
| How badly would this impact a tight uranium | | | | promises appear to have been broken. |
| market if either of the Niger mines stopped | | | | Rebellion by the tribespeople has been |
| producing? | | | | sporadic, yet violent, since the 1960s. |
| | | | |
| A Paris-based spokesman for the Niger | | | | Thompson reported in his travel advisory, |
| Movement for Justice (MNJ), Seydou Kaocen | | | | "Sources on the ground suggest that the group |
| Maiga, told reporters this weekend, "This | | | | (MNJ) is largely made up of veteran Tuareg |
| region has been declared a war zone by the | | | | militants, who were integrated into the Niger |
| government and in this situation we cannot | | | | military under the terms of the 1998 |
| allow the Chinese to continue extracting | | | | agreement and subsequently defected." |
| natural resources while civilians are being | | | | |
| killed." | | | | In question is who dictates how the land is |
| | | | used - whether for agriculture or uranium |
| He had made this statement after Tuareg and | | | | mining. The Tuareg nomads want the arable |
| other nomadic tribes, led by the highly | | | | land for their camels, goats and sheep. |
| trained militant Aghaly ag Alambo, kidnapped | | | | |
| China Nuclear International Uranium (Sino-U) | | | | The agriculture and livestock sectors provide |
| deputy general manager Zhang Guohua. The | | | | about 80 percent of the country's employment. |
| kidnapping took place near Ingall, an area | | | | Only 15 percent of Niger's land is arable, |
| which is currently being heavily prospected | | | | and herein lies the problem. The Chinese have |
| for uranium deposits, and which we discussed | | | | been exploring near the oasis of Indall, |
| nearly 15 months ago. | | | | which because of its salt diapirs could host |
| | | | prolific uranium deposits. |
| Ag Alambo appears to be emerging as a folk | | | | |
| hero among the nomadic tribes, who control | | | | But the salty plains hold a cultural |
| northern Niger and where the uranium mines | | | | significance. Each September, as they have |
| are located. | | | | for centuries, Tuareg, Peul and Arab nomads |
| | | | gather for the annual 'salt cure.' During |
| We have been following the Tuareg story since | | | | their annual reunion, they exchange news of |
| April, when thirty armed MNJ nomads attacked | | | | their nomadic travels while their livestock |
| Niger's Akouta uranium mine, controlled by an | | | | graze on the grass of the oasis. |
| AREVA subsidiary. A security guard and three | | | | |
| others were killed. There had been two | | | | An MNJ spokesman explained that if Indall |
| previous violent incidents before then, but | | | | became a mining town, it would be a |
| none were uranium mining related. | | | | 'disaster.' |
| | | | |
| Little took place until June when another 20 | | | | And a disaster is what could possibly occur |
| MNJ members boldly, but unsuccessfully, | | | | between now and September, before the annual |
| attacked an international airport located in | | | | nomadic gathering, should the MNJ insurgents |
| Agadez. This is another area being prospected | | | | continue targeting uranium interests in |
| for uranium deposits. In late June, a widely | | | | Niger. |
| respected security expert, Neil Thompson of | | | | |
| RED24, issued a travel warning advising | | | | This is not an anomalous episode, open to |
| 'against all non-essential travel to the | | | | instant resolution. The traditional Tuareg |
| northern parts of Niger.' Thompson was | | | | lifestyle has been collapsing since the 1970s |
| formerly the Detective Superintendent in the | | | | because of desertification and drought, |
| UK's National Crime Squad, is a trained | | | | especially the severe droughts of 1972-74 and |
| hostage negotiator, and has worked closely | | | | 1984-85. Having found themselves forced onto |
| with foreign intelligence and law enforcement | | | | the economic and political sidelines, they |
| agencies. | | | | took up arms in the 1990s. This led to the |
| | | | resolution of 1998, which was never honored. |
| Thompson also wrote in his travel advisory, | | | | Dissatisfaction has driven the nomads to |
| "The combination of widespread Tuareg | | | | rebel. One expert commented, "The Tuareg |
| discontent, a highly motivated and | | | | problem in Niger was never resolved." |
| increasingly capable Tuareg insurgent group, | | | | |
| and the Niger government's entrenched | | | | And now the Tuareg and other nomads appear to |
| political position suggests that a | | | | have banded together to reclaim their |
| protracted, and possibly bloody, conflict in | | | | territory, which includes uranium prospecting |
| northern Niger is now highly likely, and may | | | | licenses awarded to foreign operators. |
| even spread to neighbouring countries." The | | | | |
| MNJ has been active for the past six months, | | | | Most likely to be impacted should the Akouta |
| as the spot uranium price reached a historic | | | | underground uranium mine suffer any damage is |
| high. | | | | AREVA, which owns 34 percent of the Cominak, |
| | | | the company which mines this deposit. Other |
| A week before the Chinese uranium executive | | | | foreign companies holding interests are |
| was kidnapped, Thompson warned the MNJ would | | | | Japan's Overseas Uranium Resource Development |
| "attack 'softer' targets, such as foreign | | | | Company (25 percent) and Spain's Enusa (10 |
| companies and personnel." | | | | percent). Uranium concentrates, produced in |
| | | | Niger, are mostly shipped to Comurhex |
| Earlier this year, Niger's Minister of Mines | | | | (France) for conversion. |
| and Energy, Mohammed Abdoulahi, said his | | | | |
| staff was reviewing about 100 exploration | | | | Recent events show a departure from |
| applications from 26 companies. After Namibia | | | | statements made by Dr. John North, |
| had closed the 'exploration license' window, | | | | then-director of uranium explorers North |
| many chose to pursue uranium opportunities in | | | | Atlantic Resources and Northwestern Mineral |
| Niger. | | | | Ventures, who told us, "My experience with |
| | | | Niger is that it's a peaceful, democratic |
| Most eager were the Chinese. The country had | | | | country with no civil unrest." |
| announced ambitious plans to build new | | | | |
| nuclear reactors to continue fueling China's | | | | Just as with copper strikes, or the potential |
| astounding GDP growth, while at the same time | | | | thereof, taking place in South America, |
| hoping to reduce its share of carbon dioxide | | | | production disruptions can impact a metal's |
| emissions. China is the world's largest | | | | price. The same could be said for uranium, |
| consumer of coal and hopes to reduce its coal | | | | especially for one of the world's leading |
| dependence through the use of nuclear, | | | | producers. |
| natural gas and other less pollutive | | | | |
| alternatives. | | | | Our conclusions are highly speculative and |
| | | | should not be construed as investment advice. |
| The Tuareg rebels have complained about | | | | However, to the south in Nigeria's Niger |
| Chinese workers taking the jobs of local | | | | Delta, another terrorist group, MEND - |
| workers. Ag Alambo issued a warning that he | | | | Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger |
| was opposed to foreign companies supplying | | | | Delta - has been dictating the world's |
| Niger's national army, which has been | | | | gasoline prices as a result of their |
| detaining and killing civilians during a | | | | kidnappings. |
| brutal regional security crackdown. | | | | |
| | | | It's Africa. Anything can happen. Even with |
| At the root of the recent Tuareg hostilities | | | | the uranium price. |
| is the demand to have greater control over | | | | |