| Because of rapid developments in the uranium | | | | long-term uranium price and the weekly spot |
| sector, over the past three years, the market | | | | price? And for that matter, at which levels |
| place continues attempting to digest all the | | | | are the floor prices near-term uranium |
| news and adjust accordingly. | | | | producers, such as Energy Metals (NYSE ARCA: |
| | | | EMU), have signed with utilities? Are these |
| In a June 2003 utility PowerPoint we recently | | | | at US$85/pound? Or are the floors at higher |
| reviewed, it became evident to us that U.S. | | | | prices? Lower prices? How high is the ceiling |
| utilities were later ambushed by unforeseen | | | | price? |
| developments then entering the markets. | | | | |
| According to the industry presentation made | | | | We did discover one interesting discrepancy. |
| by a well-known spokesman of a nuclear | | | | For momentum traders and those hoping to |
| utility, he explained to his audience, four | | | | exploit the market price inefficiency: |
| years ago, "It is difficult to see how very | | | | TradeTech reports its uranium price indicator |
| many companies could afford to invest in new | | | | after market on Friday while Ux Consulting |
| production when there is such a glut on the | | | | does not report its price indicator until |
| supply side." | | | | late Monday. Rarely are these price |
| | | | indicators much different. After all, both |
| He added on one slide, "Only those with | | | | talk to mostly the same nuclear buyers and |
| substantial market share, long-term contracts | | | | brokers to arrive at their price indicators. |
| and low production costs can afford to invest | | | | |
| in new production in such a market." He also | | | | However, U.S. stock options traders, |
| pointed out, during his lecture, the Russian | | | | utilizing a company's put and call options |
| HEU feed sales 'will overhang the market and | | | | series, such as those offered by Cameco Corp |
| serve to moderate price.' | | | | (NYSE: CCJ) and Uranerz Energy (AMEX: URZ), |
| | | | could possibly benefit by knowing the uranium |
| Times have changed. We bring this up not to | | | | price indicator before trading commences |
| torture this man's faulty prescience, but to | | | | Monday morning, especially after a spot |
| demonstrate how greatly the uranium market | | | | uranium price spike. Certainly this |
| has undergone massive upheaval in such a | | | | inefficiency will someday be remedied, but |
| short time. The market is still struggling to | | | | those traders hoping to exploit this |
| attain realistic efficiency and transparency. | | | | unfortunate and archaic market mechanism |
| For nearly four decades the civilian nuclear | | | | could potentially reap trading profits. |
| fuel market had been a closed society. | | | | |
| According to one interview we conducted a | | | | Summary of Uranium News Services |
| year ago, we were told you could fit all the | | | | |
| market participants into a StarbucksÂ(R). | | | | Each of these news services has varying |
| | | | degrees of 'connection' and credibility |
| For more than a decade and through 2003, it | | | | within the uranium space. All five have their |
| was a buyer's market. Buyers dictated prices. | | | | pulse on the uranium price. |
| Uranium miners either quietly whined among | | | | |
| themselves or took it on the chin and humbly | | | | Nukem is a subsidiary of a former uranium |
| sold their uranium for whatever cash the | | | | mining company, which now specializes in |
| buyer would pay. Over the past two years, | | | | nuclear engineering services, including |
| sellers have begun dictating floor prices | | | | decommissioning and nuclear waste management. |
| with only a passing concept of a ceiling | | | | Nukem publishes insightful articles about the |
| price. Just as buyers were relentless prior | | | | nuclear sector in the company's monthly Nukem |
| to 2006, sellers hold all the cards for the | | | | Market Report. Nukem also publishes the |
| next little while. Using TradeTech's | | | | month-end uranium price indicator. One can |
| long-term contract price of US$85/pound U3O8 | | | | visit their website to find out about their |
| equivalent, new entries to the uranium market | | | | services: A more intensive reporting of the |
| have a comfortable spread between operating | | | | weekly price range comes from a Nukem spin |
| costs and the floor price for their uranium | | | | off: Energy Intelligence. This service has |
| sales. | | | | covered the energy markets for decades and is |
| | | | widely respected in all sectors they cover. |
| Still, there remain numerous inefficiencies | | | | |
| in the spot uranium pricing market. Probably | | | | As with all Platts publications, Platts |
| less than 200 people worldwide have a grasp | | | | Nuclear Fuel is owned by The McGraw-Hill |
| of what is really going on within this | | | | Companies (NYSE: MHP). The publication is |
| uranium markets; some might consider this | | | | published every two weeks. Platts publishes a |
| estimate quite generous. Of those, probably | | | | uranium price range, provides penetrating |
| far less than fifty have extremely reliable | | | | reportage of the nuclear fuel cycle sector, |
| information. None of these individuals write | | | | and reports on the uranium price indicators |
| uranium mining stock newsletters. | | | | issued by TradeTech and Ux Consulting. One |
| | | | can contact Platts by email for additional |
| In order to provide uranium mining stock | | | | information or apply for a free trial at or |
| investors, uranium futures traders and others | | | | by telephone: 212-904-3070. |
| with the tools to capitalize upon these | | | | |
| market inefficiencies 'for their own | | | | FreshFUEL is published by Washington Nuclear |
| protection,' we compiled a list of valuable | | | | Corporation. Unlike NYMEX uranium swaps, |
| news sources from which to draw vital | | | | which are financial-based, this weekly |
| industry data. We also provided some | | | | publication reports on physical uranium |
| commentary about each to help protect | | | | actually traded during the week. In their May |
| yourself against upcoming price volatility in | | | | 11th issue, we reviewed a snapshot of the |
| this marketplace. | | | | results for New York Nuclear's Wednesday |
| | | | two-hour online trading session through the |
| In our January forecast, we expected some | | | | UraniumOnLine electronic trading system. |
| price volatility in 2007. This remains as | | | | FreshFUEL is published 50 times per year and |
| true today as it was when we announced it | | | | subscription information can be obtained by |
| four months ago, especially after we re-read | | | | contacting Nancy Passarelli through her email |
| those last four paragraphs we wrote in that | | | | address of or by telephone at 212-682-5070. |
| commentary. ( ) | | | | |
| | | | In the past, many had recognized Ux |
| Five valuable news services provide a | | | | Consulting as one of the more widely followed |
| substantial amount of 'breaking news' | | | | consulting services in the uranium space. |
| information and/or decision-making insights | | | | This company reports a spot price indicator |
| about uranium pricing. Each have established | | | | to subscribers sometime on Monday afternoon |
| their own niche in the uranium market and | | | | and then publicly releases the same data late |
| have developed a dedicated following. | | | | Tuesday or Wednesday. To our knowledge, Ux |
| | | | Consulting has never issued a month-end U3O8 |
| The 'trade papers' are where many of the | | | | spot price unless the weekly spot price |
| mainstream media visit for sound bites and | | | | coincides with the last day of the month. |
| new developments in order to write those | | | | UxConsulting has been in business for about |
| articles. | | | | twenty years. The website address is |
| | | | |
| At least four of these news services are | | | | NUEXCO/TradeTech has been publishing the |
| widely read by the serious players in the | | | | weekly spot uranium price continuously for |
| market. These include utilities, fuel | | | | nearly forty years. Through the company's |
| managers, fuel brokers, trading companies, | | | | weekly magazine Nuclear Market Review, |
| governments and market traders (in either | | | | TradeTech publishes a weekly spot price |
| physical uranium or mining stocks or both). | | | | indicator before midnight eastern time on |
| | | | Friday. The company also publishes an |
| With the advent of NYMEX futures trading, the | | | | end-of-month spot price indicator - even on |
| uranium market is proceeding through another | | | | New Year's Eve (December 31st). Subscribers |
| paradigm shift. We expect Wall Street players | | | | receive weekly reports and monthly reports on |
| to stampede into this sector in increasing | | | | an annual subscription. |
| numbers as evidenced by reports from the | | | | |
| recent Raymond James (NYSE: RJF) Uranium | | | | Until recently, most subscribers for these |
| Conference in New York City.( | | | | publications were comprised of utilities and |
| | | | mining companies. After NYMEX announced it |
| The serious reporting services include: | | | | would trade swaps, traders began purchasing |
| Platts Nuclear Fuel, Nukem Market Report, | | | | annual subscriptions for several of these |
| Fresh FUEL (Washington Nuclear Corporation), | | | | services. Those wishing to remain on top of |
| Nuclear Market Review (TradeTech) and Ux | | | | the news or ahead of the news should contact |
| Weekly (Ux Consulting). | | | | each company and find out about their |
| | | | publication offerings. At a time when we |
| We have come across glaring inefficiencies in | | | | believe price volatility could instantly |
| the price-reporting space. For example, there | | | | enter this market, it might pay to protect |
| are only two services reporting the month-end | | | | oneself by relying on professionals rather |
| price of uranium (more specifically the U3O8 | | | | than the hearsay of amateurs. We hope this |
| equivalent): Nukem Market Report and | | | | helps level the playing field for many. |
| TradeTech's Nuclear Market Review. | | | | |
| | | | COPYRIGHT© 2007 by StockInterview, |
| Another question remains unanswered: Why is | | | | Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. |
| there a US$35/pound spread between the | | | | |