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Article #16: How Soon Will Saudi Arabia Turn to Nuclear Energy?

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While a growing number of countries have energy for electrical generation. The
announced their civilian nuclear energy World Nuclear Association highlights the
ambitions over the past twelve months, no BN-350 fast reactor in Kazakhstan, which
other country is likely to have more of a has produced 135 MWe of electricity and
psychological impact on the nuclear 80,000 cubic meters per day of potable
energy picture than Saudi Arabia. We water for nearly 30 years. In Japan, ten
believe the Kingdom's natural gas and desalination facilities are linked to
water problems will lead them to nuclear, pressurized water reactors producing
sooner rather than later, probably as electricity. The International Atomic
early as this year. Energy Agency is working closely with
After our interview with Kevin Bambrough, about 20 countries to implement dual-use
which resulted in the widely read nuclear reactors, which would also
article, 'Explosion in Nuclear Energy desalinate water.
Demand Coming," we began more deeply According to the World Nuclear
researching Bambrough's conclusion. He Association's website, "Small and medium
believes the overwhelming growth in sized nuclear reactors are suitable for
nuclear energy will continue to drive the desalination, often with cogeneration of
uranium bull market much higher than is electricity using low-pressure steam from
suspected. He believes the uranium the turbine and hot sea water feed from
renaissance has gone beyond the envelope the final cooling system. The main
of just a mining inventory shortage. We opportunities for nuclear plants have
researched this further during the course been identified as the 80-100,000 m3/day
of our investigation into uranium and and 200-500,000 m3/day ranges."
geopolitics. We were surprised by what we There are numerous examples of nuclear
discovered, and continue to be stunned by desalination being considered. In 1977,
how accurate Mr. Bambrough's forecast is Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility was to
likely to play out. We included the also have a 200,000 cubic meter/day MSF
special sub-section, which follows, in desalination plant. Construction delays,
our soon-to-be-published, A Practical and the subsequent Islamic revolution,
Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks. Below prevented this from occurring. Perhaps
is a sneak preview. when Iran commences its civilian nuclear
An April 2006 UPI news item confirmed program, the desalination plant will be
what many have long believed. It won't be revived. China is reviewing the
long before Saudi Arabia launches a feasibility of a nuclear seawater
nuclear project. Kuwaiti researcher desalination plant in the Yantai area.
Abdullah al-Nufaisi told seminar Russia has advanced a nuclear
attendees in Qatar that Saudi Arabia is desalination project with barge-mounted
preparing a nuclear program. He said the marine reactors using Canadian
government was being urged to launch a reverse-osmosis technology. India has
nuclear project by Saudi scientists, but begun operating a nuclear desalination
had not yet received the blessing by the demonstration plant at the Madras Atomic
royal family. Social, not energy, issues Power Station in southeast India. Another
could help the Saudi royals embark on a one may soon follow in the southern
large-scale nuclear program. Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which
Of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's 24 perpetually suffers from water shortages.
million subjects, more than 40 percent Pakistan continues its efforts to set up
are under 18 years of age. While still a demonstration desalination plant. South
manageable, the country's infrastructure Korea has developed a small nuclear
is not prepared to deal with its reactor design for cogeneration of
explosive population growth. The two electricity and water. It may first be
biggest problems facing Saudi Arabia are tested on Madura Island in Indonesia.
potential water and electricity Argentina has also developed a small
shortages. True, its super oilfields may nuclear reactor design for electricity
also have peaked in production and might cogeneration or solely for desalination.
move into tertiary recovery, but that is The Saudis have investigated dual use for
unknown. An Islamic revolution, similar nearly thirty years. Since 1978, Saudi
to what Iran suffered in the 1970s is scientists have studied nuclear
probably foremost in the King's mind. desalination plants in Kazakhstan and
Civil unrest might come about should his Japan. Both studies positively assessed
subjects suffer from insufficient the feasibility of bringing the first
electricity and inadequate water dual-use nuclear reactor in Saudi Arabia.
supplies. One need only look at the Since the mid 1980s, scientists and
widespread electricity shortages Syria researchers at the Saudi's Nuclear
experienced in the 1980s and early 1990s. Engineering Department at King Abdulaziz
As reported in the October 14, 2004 issue University, the College of Engineering at
of Arab Oil and Gas, the Saudis lag well the University of Riyadh, the Chemical
behind Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the Engineering Department of King Saud
United Arab Emirates in per capita energy University, and the Atomic Energy
consumption. The rate of natural gas Research Institute have researched and
consumption, which produces Saudi's evaluated nuclear desalination. Saudi
electricity, increased less than Egypt scientists presented their paper,
and Syria. Total energy consumption entitled, 'Role of Nuclear Desalination
dropped by 3.5 percent in 1999 and 2000. in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,' at the
The internationally heralded "Gas First International Conference on Nuclear
Initiative" of 1998 was the Kingdom's Desalination in Morocco in October 2002.
attempt to lure major western oil The country possesses a tandetron
companies back into the country to help accelerator and a cyclotron capable of
develop its natural gas reserves. After isotope production for medical purposes.
major oil companies spent $100 million in Saudi's nuclear scientists have been
due diligence to evaluate the Saudi involved with many countries to help
natural gas reserves, the initiative their country develop a bonafide nuclear
quietly dropped off the world's radar energy program. In late March 2006, a
screen. A Shell Oil executive, whose German magazine reported Saudi Arabia has
company is exploring for gas in the been secretly working on a nuclear
country's Empty Quarter, told Bloomberg program with help from Pakistani
Daily Energy News that this was a scientists. Ironically, many believe
high-risk venture with a low probability Saudi Arabia helped finance Pakistan's
of finding sizeable reserves. In Matthew nuclear program. Because Saudi scientists
Simmons' Twilight of the Desert, he lack the proven experience of the entire
repeated what he was told by an anonymous nuclear fuel cycle, Pakistan's expertise,
senior oil executive, "The reservoirs are over the past decade, could help
crummy." accelerate the Kingdom's pursuit of a
The Saudis need water and electricity to civilian nuclear program.
match their population growth. Nuclear While lacking proven uranium deposits,
energy is likely to be the solution to the country's Tabuk region has low-grade
both those problems. Continued dependence amounts of uranium and thorium. However,
upon natural gas may prove a fatal Saudi Arabia has significant phosphate
economic and social error for the royal deposits, which some believe could be
family. Our research forecasts the Saudis exploited. The country's two largest
should announce a large-scale civilian deposits reportedly measure about 750
nuclear energy program in the near million metric tons, averaging between 19
future. and 21 percent P2O5. Mined by the Saudi
Let's discuss the water problem first. In Arabian Mining Company and the Saudi
a 2002 story reported in the Oil & Gas Basic Industrial Corporation, fertilizer
Journal, Saudi Arabia's 30 desalination plants at the Al Jubail Industrial City
plants produce about 21 percent of the produce about 4.5 metric tons of P2O5
world's total desalinated water annually. While extraction of uranium
production. Nearly 70 percent of the from phosphates can be an expensive
local water drunk in cities comes from proposition, the phosphates could provide
desalinated sea water. As the population a ready supply of uranium for the
grows, Saudi Arabia may spend another $40 country's nuclear desalination plants.
billion to build more desalination Then, it would be a matter of uranium
plants. enrichment, of which both the Russians
Half of the world's desalination plants and the French would be scrambling to
are in the Middle East. Most are powered provide the Kingdom.
by fossil fuels, especially natural gas. While the Saudi program many not directly
Converting sea water to potable water is impact world uranium prices, the
energy intensive. The commonly used Kingdom's decision to advance its nuclear
desalination method of multi-stage flash program, beyond the research and medical
(MSF) distillation with steam requires stage, would signal the entire world that
heat at 70 to 130 degrees centigrade and nuclear energy programs will be a primary
consumes up to 200 kilowatt hours of growth sector for the next fifty to one
electricity for every cubic meter of hundred years. Should the Saudis also
water (about 264 gallons). MSF is the commence desalination projects using
most popular technology, but some are dual-use nuclear reactors, this could
turning to reverse osmosis (RO). RO change the entire landscape of the water
consumes about 6 kilowatt hours of situation for the Middle East as well as
electricity for every cubic meter of Africa. And it would most likely spark a
water. significant stampede of the Kingdom's
Desalination is very expensive. The cost neighbors into the global nuclear
to generate this electricity through renaissance.
natural gas explains why Saudi Arabia ****************************************
spends about $4 billion in operating and *****
annual maintenance costs. James Finch contributes to and other
There are numerous precedents in publications.
combining water desalination with nuclear






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