Is This Uranium Bull Market For Real?

In light of Toshiba?s recent proposed acquisition ofNews reports suggest a number of uranium-heavy
Westinghouse Electric from the government-ownedcountries held an initial meeting in Paris in February
British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL), historians may be1972 to establish a uranium-producer?s alliance, in
reminded of former Westinghouse Chairman Robertessence a de facto uranium cartel. Others suggest it
Kirby?s litigious international outcry and prolongedwas formed in April 1972, after the Canadian
battle over secretive and illegal price manipulation bygovernment reportedly gave its blessing. Canadian
a global uranium cartel. In the 1970s, Westinghouse,author Gordon Edwards (Canada?s Nuclear History)
determined to capture the world market of buildingbluntly wrote, ?The purpose of the cartel was to
nuclear reactors, offered dirt-cheap nuclear fuel assecretly manipulate world uranium prices using a
part of its incentive to get sales from utilityphony bidding system. Hidden quotas were
companies. The company?s 27 utility customers hadestablished by representatives from Canada, France,
locked in agreements with Westinghouse to provideAustralia, South Africa and Rio Tinto Zinc (London
them with 65 million pounds of U3O8 over the nextStock Exchange: RIO).? Namibia and Niger were also
twenty years, well into the 1990s. Those contractsincluded in the alliance, as was Gulf Oil, at least
set off one of the most curious legal battles of theaccording to Robert Kirby of Westinghouse.
1970?s, ultimately reducing Westinghouse to a shell ofWhen the U.S. government re-affirmed its trade
the powerhouse it once was.embargo in March of that year, a subsequent uranium
In recent weeks, Toshiba (London Stock Exchange:cartel meeting took place in Johannesburg, South
TOS; Tokyo Stock Exchange Ticker Code: 6502) hasAfrica in May 1972. At an Ottawa conference on May
been strongly criticized for the Westinghouse28, 1972, it was reported that Jack Austin, then
acquisition, and may sell as much as 49 percent ofdeputy minister of energy, voiced his concern the
the deal to two other Japanese firms and a smallercartel could be considered illegal under Canadian law.
stake to an American firm. Toshiba?s CFO, SadazumiNonetheless, the politicians gave the uranium cartel a
Ryu said the company would pay for some of itsgreen light.
acquisition costs within three years out of currentThe alleged price manipulation was paying off. In
cash flow plus float debt to about 115 percent of1973, the spot uranium price doubled. By 1976, it
equity. Will Toshiba repeat the mistakes made bydoubled again and stayed above $40/pound for
Westinghouse in the mid 1970s during the lastnearly four years. It was around that time the alleged
uranium bull market?cartel disbanded to avoid international anti-trust laws,
Today, Toshiba aims its sights on the lucrativewhich Westinghouse was arguing after unleashing a
Chinese nuclear energy market, which on the surfacetsunami of litigation. Westinghouse was desperate to
appears more ambitious than the U.S. civilian nuclearescape its liability over the promise of cheap uranium
program of the 1970?s. Toshiba wants to be a majorto utilities. In March 1976, the U.S. Department of
beneficiary of China?s aggressive plans to expand theJustice began investigating possible infringements of
country?s nuclear energy program. And why not?U.S. anti-trust laws by the alliance of uranium
Uranium prices have soared the past few years. Spotproducers. By mid 1977, a federal grand jury had
uranium rocketed in 2005 at an even faster degreebeen formed to pursue the investigations and
than in 1975. That was the year whenpossibly initiate criminal proceedings.
Westinghouse?s Robert Kirby was told by his doctorIn a letter dated July 12, 1977, the U.S.
to not even bother giving up his chain-smoking habit.Attorney-General wrote to the U.S. District Attorney
Things at Westinghouse had gotten that bad.for the Eastern District of Virginia, explaining the
The head of the Pittsburgh-based conglomeratequandary this international episode had caused and
failed to grasp what was behind the escalatingdiscussed invoking immunity to obtain witnesses who
uranium price during the 1970s. His Westinghousewould talk about the alleged conspiracy:
incentive plan sounded great when spot uranium sold?These persons are not likely to come within the
for $6/pound. However, at $40/pound, Westinghousepersonal jurisdiction of the United States courts so
got stuck with potential liabilities of more than $2long as the Department of Justice continues a sitting
billion (1970s dollars) because of his offer to providegrand jury investigation of the international uranium
the utilities with cheap fuel. By July 1975, Kirby beganindustry; (3) These persons are British subjects and
blaming the world?s uranium cartel, which he believedwe have determined that it is highly unlikely that their
manipulated the spot price higher to piggyback histestimony could be obtained through existing
company?s development plans. Across from Kirby?sarrangements for law enforcement co-operation
offices in Pittsburgh?s Golden Triangle were thebetween the United States and the United Kingdom;
offices of Gulf Oil, a uranium supplier, whom he(4) The Department of Justice has been largely
believed to be a member of the uranium cartel. Byunable to obtain information from these foreign
September 1975, Westinghouse announced a shortfallpersons about the subject matter of this
of 25,000 metric tons of uranium, and claimedinvestigation??
?commercial impracticability? in honoring its nuclearBy mid 1978, Westinghouse Electric?s complaint
fuel commitments to the 27 utilities. And the lawsuitsagainst Rio Tinto Zinc in the United Kingdom
began.floundered in that country?s court system. Obtaining
According to a special report in the Pittsburghevidence in England was markedly different from the
Post-Gazette, Kirby?s ?suspicions heightened when, inU.S. style of depositions.
late 1976, he received copies of documentsConclusion
suggesting Gulf and 28 other suppliers had conspiredDuring this litigious period, Westinghouse settled with
to form a cartel to keep Westinghouse out of theseveral utilities, but continued to pursue the lawsuits.
uranium business.? The documents were the minutesBy 1979, Judge Merhige in the U.S. District Court for
of a private meeting of uranium suppliers held inthe Eastern District of Virginia, Richmond Division,
Australia. In a bizarre twist of fate, the whistleblowerordered Westinghouse and the utilities to equitably
came in the form of Friends of the Earth, whichresolve their differences. Westinghouse agreed to
offered Westinghouse additional documents if theconcessions that ultimately cost the company nearly
nuclear power plant manufacturer would help the$1 billion, but locked up the utilities as long-term
environmental group release jailed members in thecustomers by providing parts and engineering
Philippines. Kirby ran with what he had, ignoring theirservices for up to 25 years. In quiet out-of-court
request, and began a course of intense litigation. Thesettlements, the uranium suppliers paid Westinghouse
lawsuits were eventually consolidated and heard in anearly $100 million and supplied the company with
federal district court in Virginia. During the course ofuranium.
the litigation, Westinghouse took its grievances toBesides, there was another cartel in the 1970?s,
London?s House of Lords, setting international casewhich posed a far greater risk to the developed
law about the discovery process in litigations.nations. From the oil embargo, which began 1973 and
What really happened in the 1970?s?throughout the decade, the OPEC oil cartel
Kirby and Westinghouse were caught up in anovershadowed the tiny uranium cartel. Saudi King
international trade dispute, during a world revival ofFaisal?s ?oil sword? had a far greater impact on the
the uranium market. Uranium prices had collapsed inenergy climate, Gross Domestic Product, inflation and
December 1959 when the U.S. government placed anquality of lifestyles, than an anxious alliance of
embargo on the purchase of foreign uranium foruranium producers trying to meet production costs
domestic purposes. The embargo came after theand peddle stockpiled inventory at higher prices. Not
nuclear weapons build-up of the 1950s had peaked. Inonly was the oil crisis a more serious affair, but
1959 alone, the U.S. bought 20,000 metric tonnes ofanother un-related episode tanked the price of
uranium for the country?s weapon procurementuranium.
program, about 61 percent from Canada. Within aJust as the decade was coming to a close, on March
week after the embargo, global uranium prices fell by28, 1979, a water pump broke down at the Three
75 percent. Twenty-four out of the 28 CanadianMile Island nuclear plant, about ten miles southeast of
uranium producers and processors left the business.the Pennsylvania state capital. It was an unexpected
Two Canadian crown corporations remained withevent, heightened Hollywood-style, as the accident
viable uranium assets to mine and sell. Eldorado Miningcoincided with the opening of a new movie called
and Refining Ltd had stakes in mines at Port Radium,The China Syndrome, starring Jane Fonda, Michael
Key Lake and Rabbit Lake. The provincially ownedDouglas and Jack Lemmon. In short order, many
Saskatchewan Mining Development CorporationAmericans were persuaded that events within the
owned had stakes in Key Lake, Cluff Lake and Downmovie were somehow related to the Three Mile
Lake. Before 1942, Eldorado Mining (later re-named ElIsland event. This was a Hollywood PR man?s dream.
Dorado Nuclear Ltd) had been a privately ownedFanning the media flames to capture a larger box
radium company, which in that year was taken overoffice gross, a basically nothing episode (in terms of
by the Canadian government and made into a crownloss of human life, since no one died from the
corporation. During World War II and for the nextreactor accident) was transformed into an
decade, the company?s raison d?etre was toearth-shattering campaign against the entire nuclear
produce uranium for the U.S. and U.K. nuclearenergy industry. Ironically, more died in the movie
weapons programs.(one, Jack Lemmon?s character) than as a direct
By 1956, both countries looked elsewhere for theirresult of the Three Mile Island accident (0 reportedly
uranium. By 1965, Canada?s production plummeted todied).
3,000 tonnes from a peak of 12, 000 tonnes annumHysterical commentary from that era bespoke of a
in 1959. Canada?s uranium exploration came to anuclear accident, which would melt down to the
standstill, and only three mines remained operational.earth?s core, as one character in the movie
Boom town Elliot Lake became a ghost town. Lackingsuggested. Unable to distinguish what was movie
buyers, a self-serving Canadian Prime Minister Lesterfiction from scientific reality, the movie?s message
Pearson announced in 1965 that Canada?s exportedleft a horrifying memory in the collective minds of
uranium would only ?be used for peaceful purposesthe general populace. A general panic followed, and
only.? Nearly a year earlier, the U.S. government hadnuclear energy was badly tainted by the accident. As
banned the enrichment of foreign uranium forthe momentum for building U.S. nuclear power plants
domestic use, pre-empting any newsworthy value tocame to a grinding halt, overflowing inventories for
Pearson?s announcement.the raw material to fuel those power plants had once
Between 1964 and 1967, more than sixty nuclearagain nullified the uranium exploration and mining
reactors were ordered for the U.S. civilian nuclearsector. It took more than two decades to draw
energy program. Westinghouse?s newly designeddown those built-up uranium inventories, about as
light-water reactor created excitement within thelong as it has taken for the public to once again
industry. During that time, Canadian uraniumaccept nuclear energy as a safer, cleaner alternative
exploration was taken out of mothballs andto fossil-fuel powered electricity.
production resumed. Hardball shenanigans inWhy is today?s uranium bull market different? Is the
Washington kept the uranium ban intact, and globalcurrent and spectacular rise in spot uranium prices
uranium prices reached an all-time nadir of $4/pound.different today than it was in the early to mid
Canada was shut out of the U.S. nuclear fuel cycle1970?s, when an alleged uranium cartel reportedly bid
market, and Ottawa was forced to stockpile aup prices to an artificial level? Is that same factor
reported $100 million of uranium during the Nixonoccurring during the current steep rise in the spot
presidential administration. By late 1971, Prime Ministerprice of uranium? Will Toshiba sink into the same
Trudeau?s cabinet had reached the end of their ropequicksand, during the balance of this decade, as
failing at every step to remove the ban by diplomaticWestinghouse Electric once did?
means.