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Article #55: Is This Uranium Bull Market For Real?

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In light of Toshiba?s recent proposed News reports suggest a number of
acquisition of Westinghouse Electric from uranium-heavy countries held an initial
the government-owned British Nuclear meeting in Paris in February 1972 to
Fuels (BNFL), historians may be reminded establish a uranium-producer?s alliance,
of former Westinghouse Chairman Robert in essence a de facto uranium cartel.
Kirby?s litigious international outcry Others suggest it was formed in April
and prolonged battle over secretive and 1972, after the Canadian government
illegal price manipulation by a global reportedly gave its blessing. Canadian
uranium cartel. In the 1970s, author Gordon Edwards (Canada?s Nuclear
Westinghouse, determined to capture the History) bluntly wrote, ?The purpose of
world market of building nuclear the cartel was to secretly manipulate
reactors, offered dirt-cheap nuclear fuel world uranium prices using a phony
as part of its incentive to get sales bidding system. Hidden quotas were
from utility companies. The company?s 27 established by representatives from
utility customers had locked in Canada, France, Australia, South Africa
agreements with Westinghouse to provide and Rio Tinto Zinc (London Stock
them with 65 million pounds of U3O8 over Exchange: RIO).? Namibia and Niger were
the next twenty years, well into the also included in the alliance, as was
1990s. Those contracts set off one of the Gulf Oil, at least according to Robert
most curious legal battles of the 1970?s, Kirby of Westinghouse.
ultimately reducing Westinghouse to a When the U.S. government re-affirmed its
shell of the powerhouse it once was. trade embargo in March of that year, a
In recent weeks, Toshiba (London Stock subsequent uranium cartel meeting took
Exchange: TOS; Tokyo Stock Exchange place in Johannesburg, South Africa in
Ticker Code: 6502) has been strongly May 1972. At an Ottawa conference on May
criticized for the Westinghouse 28, 1972, it was reported that Jack
acquisition, and may sell as much as 49 Austin, then deputy minister of energy,
percent of the deal to two other Japanese voiced his concern the cartel could be
firms and a smaller stake to an American considered illegal under Canadian law.
firm. Toshiba?s CFO, Sadazumi Ryu said Nonetheless, the politicians gave the
the company would pay for some of its uranium cartel a green light.
acquisition costs within three years out The alleged price manipulation was paying
of current cash flow plus float debt to off. In 1973, the spot uranium price
about 115 percent of equity. Will Toshiba doubled. By 1976, it doubled again and
repeat the mistakes made by Westinghouse stayed above $40/pound for nearly four
in the mid 1970s during the last uranium years. It was around that time the
bull market? alleged cartel disbanded to avoid
Today, Toshiba aims its sights on the international anti-trust laws, which
lucrative Chinese nuclear energy market, Westinghouse was arguing after unleashing
which on the surface appears more a tsunami of litigation. Westinghouse was
ambitious than the U.S. civilian nuclear desperate to escape its liability over
program of the 1970?s. Toshiba wants to the promise of cheap uranium to
be a major beneficiary of China?s utilities. In March 1976, the U.S.
aggressive plans to expand the country?s Department of Justice began investigating
nuclear energy program. And why not? possible infringements of U.S. anti-trust
Uranium prices have soared the past few laws by the alliance of uranium
years. Spot uranium rocketed in 2005 at producers. By mid 1977, a federal grand
an even faster degree than in 1975. That jury had been formed to pursue the
was the year when Westinghouse?s Robert investigations and possibly initiate
Kirby was told by his doctor to not even criminal proceedings.
bother giving up his chain-smoking habit. In a letter dated July 12, 1977, the U.S.
Things at Westinghouse had gotten that Attorney-General wrote to the U.S.
bad. District Attorney for the Eastern
The head of the Pittsburgh-based District of Virginia, explaining the
conglomerate failed to grasp what was quandary this international episode had
behind the escalating uranium price caused and discussed invoking immunity to
during the 1970s. His Westinghouse obtain witnesses who would talk about the
incentive plan sounded great when spot alleged conspiracy:
uranium sold for $6/pound. However, at ?These persons are not likely to come
$40/pound, Westinghouse got stuck with within the personal jurisdiction of the
potential liabilities of more than $2 United States courts so long as the
billion (1970s dollars) because of his Department of Justice continues a sitting
offer to provide the utilities with cheap grand jury investigation of the
fuel. By July 1975, Kirby began blaming international uranium industry; (3) These
the world?s uranium cartel, which he persons are British subjects and we have
believed manipulated the spot price determined that it is highly unlikely
higher to piggyback his company?s that their testimony could be obtained
development plans. Across from Kirby?s through existing arrangements for law
offices in Pittsburgh?s Golden Triangle enforcement co-operation between the
were the offices of Gulf Oil, a uranium United States and the United Kingdom; (4)
supplier, whom he believed to be a member The Department of Justice has been
of the uranium cartel. By September 1975, largely unable to obtain information from
Westinghouse announced a shortfall of these foreign persons about the subject
25,000 metric tons of uranium, and matter of this investigation??
claimed ?commercial impracticability? in By mid 1978, Westinghouse Electric?s
honoring its nuclear fuel commitments to complaint against Rio Tinto Zinc in the
the 27 utilities. And the lawsuits began. United Kingdom floundered in that
According to a special report in the country?s court system. Obtaining
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Kirby?s evidence in England was markedly
?suspicions heightened when, in late different from the U.S. style of
1976, he received copies of documents depositions.
suggesting Gulf and 28 other suppliers Conclusion
had conspired to form a cartel to keep During this litigious period,
Westinghouse out of the uranium Westinghouse settled with several
business.? The documents were the minutes utilities, but continued to pursue the
of a private meeting of uranium suppliers lawsuits. By 1979, Judge Merhige in the
held in Australia. In a bizarre twist of U.S. District Court for the Eastern
fate, the whistleblower came in the form District of Virginia, Richmond Division,
of Friends of the Earth, which offered ordered Westinghouse and the utilities to
Westinghouse additional documents if the equitably resolve their differences.
nuclear power plant manufacturer would Westinghouse agreed to concessions that
help the environmental group release ultimately cost the company nearly $1
jailed members in the Philippines. Kirby billion, but locked up the utilities as
ran with what he had, ignoring their long-term customers by providing parts
request, and began a course of intense and engineering services for up to 25
litigation. The lawsuits were eventually years. In quiet out-of-court settlements,
consolidated and heard in a federal the uranium suppliers paid Westinghouse
district court in Virginia. During the nearly $100 million and supplied the
course of the litigation, Westinghouse company with uranium.
took its grievances to London?s House of Besides, there was another cartel in the
Lords, setting international case law 1970?s, which posed a far greater risk to
about the discovery process in the developed nations. From the oil
litigations. embargo, which began 1973 and throughout
What really happened in the 1970?s? the decade, the OPEC oil cartel
Kirby and Westinghouse were caught up in overshadowed the tiny uranium cartel.
an international trade dispute, during a Saudi King Faisal?s ?oil sword? had a far
world revival of the uranium market. greater impact on the energy climate,
Uranium prices had collapsed in December Gross Domestic Product, inflation and
1959 when the U.S. government placed an quality of lifestyles, than an anxious
embargo on the purchase of foreign alliance of uranium producers trying to
uranium for domestic purposes. The meet production costs and peddle
embargo came after the nuclear weapons stockpiled inventory at higher prices.
build-up of the 1950s had peaked. In 1959 Not only was the oil crisis a more
alone, the U.S. bought 20,000 metric serious affair, but another un-related
tonnes of uranium for the country?s episode tanked the price of uranium.
weapon procurement program, about 61 Just as the decade was coming to a close,
percent from Canada. Within a week after on March 28, 1979, a water pump broke
the embargo, global uranium prices fell down at the Three Mile Island nuclear
by 75 percent. Twenty-four out of the 28 plant, about ten miles southeast of the
Canadian uranium producers and processors Pennsylvania state capital. It was an
left the business. unexpected event, heightened
Two Canadian crown corporations remained Hollywood-style, as the accident
with viable uranium assets to mine and coincided with the opening of a new movie
sell. Eldorado Mining and Refining Ltd called The China Syndrome, starring Jane
had stakes in mines at Port Radium, Key Fonda, Michael Douglas and Jack Lemmon.
Lake and Rabbit Lake. The provincially In short order, many Americans were
owned Saskatchewan Mining Development persuaded that events within the movie
Corporation owned had stakes in Key Lake, were somehow related to the Three Mile
Cluff Lake and Down Lake. Before 1942, Island event. This was a Hollywood PR
Eldorado Mining (later re-named El Dorado man?s dream. Fanning the media flames to
Nuclear Ltd) had been a privately owned capture a larger box office gross, a
radium company, which in that year was basically nothing episode (in terms of
taken over by the Canadian government and loss of human life, since no one died
made into a crown corporation. During from the reactor accident) was
World War II and for the next decade, the transformed into an earth-shattering
company?s raison d?etre was to produce campaign against the entire nuclear
uranium for the U.S. and U.K. nuclear energy industry. Ironically, more died in
weapons programs. the movie (one, Jack Lemmon?s character)
By 1956, both countries looked elsewhere than as a direct result of the Three Mile
for their uranium. By 1965, Canada?s Island accident (0 reportedly died).
production plummeted to 3,000 tonnes from Hysterical commentary from that era
a peak of 12, 000 tonnes annum in 1959. bespoke of a nuclear accident, which
Canada?s uranium exploration came to a would melt down to the earth?s core, as
standstill, and only three mines remained one character in the movie suggested.
operational. Boom town Elliot Lake became Unable to distinguish what was movie
a ghost town. Lacking buyers, a fiction from scientific reality, the
self-serving Canadian Prime Minister movie?s message left a horrifying memory
Lester Pearson announced in 1965 that in the collective minds of the general
Canada?s exported uranium would only ?be populace. A general panic followed, and
used for peaceful purposes only.? Nearly nuclear energy was badly tainted by the
a year earlier, the U.S. government had accident. As the momentum for building
banned the enrichment of foreign uranium U.S. nuclear power plants came to a
for domestic use, pre-empting any grinding halt, overflowing inventories
newsworthy value to Pearson?s for the raw material to fuel those power
announcement. plants had once again nullified the
Between 1964 and 1967, more than sixty uranium exploration and mining sector. It
nuclear reactors were ordered for the took more than two decades to draw down
U.S. civilian nuclear energy program. those built-up uranium inventories, about
Westinghouse?s newly designed light-water as long as it has taken for the public to
reactor created excitement within the once again accept nuclear energy as a
industry. During that time, Canadian safer, cleaner alternative to fossil-fuel
uranium exploration was taken out of powered electricity.
mothballs and production resumed. Why is today?s uranium bull market
Hardball shenanigans in Washington kept different? Is the current and spectacular
the uranium ban intact, and global rise in spot uranium prices different
uranium prices reached an all-time nadir today than it was in the early to mid
of $4/pound. Canada was shut out of the 1970?s, when an alleged uranium cartel
U.S. nuclear fuel cycle market, and reportedly bid up prices to an artificial
Ottawa was forced to stockpile a reported level? Is that same factor occurring
$100 million of uranium during the Nixon during the current steep rise in the spot
presidential administration. By late price of uranium? Will Toshiba sink into
1971, Prime Minister Trudeau?s cabinet the same quicksand, during the balance of
had reached the end of their rope failing this decade, as Westinghouse Electric
at every step to remove the ban by once did?
diplomatic means.






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