| Why should Iran not be trusted with Nuclear | | | | International and Strategic Studies: |
| power, which may lead to nuclear weapons? Is | | | | Diplomatic or economic penalties by the U.N. |
| Iran breaking the NPT in any way? | | | | that reinforce the idea that Iran's |
| | | | sovereignty or rights are being challenged, |
| The U.S. Government defines its areas of | | | | however, are likely to backfire. The result |
| objectionable Iranian behavior as the | | | | of such measures would likely be increased |
| following: | | | | support for the unpopular regime in Tehran. |
| | | | The only possible exception might be |
| --Iranian efforts to acquire nuclear weapons | | | | targeting leaders in Tehran for direct |
| and other weapons of mass destruction; | | | | penalties such as travel bans, economic |
| | | | sanctions, including money and property |
| --Its support for and involvement in | | | | outside of Tehran, and even restrictions on |
| international terrorism; | | | | the ability of their family members to travel |
| | | | or attend western schools. These might have |
| --Its support for violent opposition to the | | | | some value in making the decision makers in |
| Middle East peace process; and | | | | Iran feel the affects of their actions, but |
| | | | are not necessarily enough to convince them |
| --Its dismal human rights record. | | | | to change their nuclear behavior. |
| | | | |
| In other words, Iran has not demonstrated | | | | In the end, however, the United States and |
| itself to be a responsible international | | | | its allies must also think of what |
| player, and certainly not one to be trusted | | | | alternatives they are willing to provide to |
| with nuclear power. | | | | Tehran should it decide to change course. |
| | | | While not a democracy, Iran is still a highly |
| On the second point: "In some ways, the | | | | political country and any viable solution to |
| challenge Iran poses to the nuclear | | | | the standoff must include some way for |
| nonproliferation regime is even more | | | | decision makers in Iran to justify their |
| daunting. Although the evidence - including | | | | decision publicly. To be sure, it would be |
| Iran almost 20 years of hiding all its | | | | preferred if the United States could find a |
| nuclear fuel cycle efforts - clearly | | | | solution that would both end Iran's nuclear |
| indicates a weapons program, it continues to | | | | ambitions and weaken the regime, but such a |
| argue that its program is exclusively for | | | | compromise is unlikely to emerge unless the |
| peaceful purposes. On September 24, the IAEA | | | | international landscape changes |
| Board of Governors found that Iran violated | | | | significantly. Offering Iran the ability to |
| its safeguards obligations. This finding | | | | benefit from other forms of nuclear |
| requires a report to the United Nations | | | | technology including the possible sale by |
| Security Council. The Security Council will | | | | Russia of additional nuclear power plants |
| not replace the IAEA effort, but reinforce it | | | | might end up being an important part of any |
| - for example, by calling on Iran to | | | | political compromise. |
| cooperate with the IAEA, and giving the IAEA | | | | |
| new, needed authority to investigate all | | | | On the military side, the chances of a U.S. |
| Iranian weaponization efforts. We continue to | | | | strike against Iran soon are probably |
| work with other IAEA Board members on the | | | | unlikely. Reasons include the fact that the |
| timing and content of the report of Iranian | | | | U.S. military is already stretched thin, the |
| noncompliance to the Security Council. We | | | | virtual certitude that much of Iran's secret |
| also continue to support the efforts of the | | | | nuclear program would not be detected and |
| United Kingdom, France and Germany - the EU-3 | | | | destroyed, the likelihood that a military |
| - to bring Iran back to the negotiations." | | | | attack would turn a pro-U.S. Iranian |
| | | | population against us and toward the regime, |
| The operative wording here is: "The IAEA | | | | and the negative reactions likely to come |
| Board of Governors found that Iran violated | | | | from the international community. |
| its safeguards obligations." Certainly, the | | | | |
| evidence suggests Tehran is in violation of | | | | Experts are now talking about "containment" |
| the NPT. | | | | of Iran along the lines of our containment of |
| | | | the Soviet Union during the Cold War. While |
| Will the US Military do something about the | | | | not ideal and also protracted, such a policy |
| nuclear weapon in Iran? The following | | | | may be our only recourse for the foreseeable |
| selected commentary from the Center for | | | | future. |