Risks of the American-Russian Military Strategies

Weapons of mass destruction are twentieth-centuryroadmap towards attaining full nuclear disarmament.
inventions. There is nothing new, of course, aboutMore than 27,000 nuclear weapons are still
mass destruction. From ancient times a militarymaintained.4 Ninety five percent of these weapons
campaign often meant the massacre of tens ofare in the US and Russia, and more than 16,000 are
thousands of soldiers and civilians. Military researchersoperationally deployed. A report by the Carnegie
produced weapons that could deliver poison gas,Endowment for International Peace explains: "The
germs, and nuclear explosions with artillery, aerialfigure of 6000 accountable warheads uses specific
bombs, and later missiles paving the way to what weaccounting rules agreed to under the START treaty.
now have as weapons of mass destruction.Both nations will retain thousands of additional tactical
Then emerged the US and the USSR, by virtue ofand reserve weapons. According to the bulletin of
their ability to develop the above weaponsthe Atomic Scientist, many if not most of the US
catapulted them to superpower status. Their rivalrywarheads removed from the active stockpile will be
resulted in the era known as the "Cold War," a periodplaced in storage rather than dismantled.
between the end of World War II and 1990, in whichUnquestionably, the two nuclear superpowers still hold
arms and security continued to play a defining role.ample nuclear weaponry in their arsenals to destroy
During the Cold War, suspicion and insecurity runthe entire world population several times over!
rampant. The Cold War found expressions in theMaintaining such a large number of dangerous
continued development in military arms and nuclearweapons invites yet another threat the accidental
capability. Global arsenals peaked during the Cold Warlaunching of nuclear missiles.
decades, when both the NATO nations and theAccusations and counter accusations have
Warsaw Pact perfected and produced tens ofcharacterized the disarmament scene. The Bush
thousands of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.administration has abstained from or rejected several
Humanity brazens out serious and immediate threatsmajor treaties, including the Anti Ballistic Missile
from the global existence of thousands of nuclearTreaty, the START II and III treaties, the
weapons and chemical weapons. We in additionComprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and the draft
countenance the possibility that some nation or groupcompliance protocol to the Biological Weapons
still has or soon could have biological weapons. A wideConvention. This analysis raises fundamental
assortment of delivery mechanisms for thesequestions-There is a difference between knowing
weapons exists, including ballistic missiles, cruiseexactly what you want done and how it should be
missiles, aircraft, artillery, ships, trucks, and envelopes.done and allowing someone to make their own
There is also now a growing recognition of the addeddecisions and do it their way.
danger that terrorist organizations could kill thousands,There is no better time to implement the long
not just with traditional mass destruction.envisaged nuclear weapon free zones across the
In January 1992, for example, the member states ofworld than now. South Africa under the leadership of
the U.N. Security Council declared that the spread ofex President Mandela took the bold step of
weapons of mass destruction constituted a "threatrenouncing his country's stockpiles of weapons of
to international peace and security."mass destruction. Preceding the above was a similar
There are two related proliferation risks today: thatstep by some former Soviet States in destroying
more nations will acquire these weapons and that subnuclear weapons of the former USSR in their
national or terrorist groups might acquire or use them.territorial areas. Both initiatives deserve applause.
Much concentration was given to the first risk andThe only long term solution to the Middle East crisis
until recently when there arose the glaring threatsas recommended by the WMDC is the creation of
from suspected programs of a few "rogue states".Nuclear-free states in that region. Iran's proliferation
Post 9/11 events shifted attention to the threat ofcannot be treated in isolation with Israel's continues
terrorists' use of weapons of mass destruction, butstockpiling of armament. In the case of Iran, analysts
the tension in South Asia, serves to illustrate that thebelieve her nuclear ambitions are motivated by
other side of the coin is the real potential forwell-known suspicion of insecurity from particularly
catastrophe.Israel's clandestine nuclear program and to some
In line with this, Dr. Hans Blix former chief of theextend Iraq as well. This opinion is shared by most
International Atomic Energy Agency chaired astates in that region. It is against this background
commission of experts known as the Weapons ofthat Libya's official news agency reportedly
Mass Destruction Commission to look into the latentre-echoed Col. Qathafi's call on the need for the Arab
threats posed by deadly weapons of massworld to acquire nuclear weapons to counter Israel's
destruction to the civilization of our day.Thisnuclear domination in the Middle East. This is the only
commission unlike previous ones, is spear heading thepanacea to the polarization in that region. Similarly, if
global monitoring campaign against nuclear, biologicalreform elements continue to make progress in Iran
and chemical weapon proliferation through itsand if the international community led by the U.S will
pragmatic recommendations that will serve as thepursue active diplomacy; an advance in resolving the
roadmap in ridding our world off dangerous weapons,proliferation deadlock is not farfetched. In many
and as such deserves unqualified support by theways, the South Asian programs represent the most
world community.difficult challenge, both for the risks of regional war
The WMDC in its report have made numerousthey present and their ripple effect on other Asian
recommendations but among them is the primarystates.
emphasis on the need for all states that possessThe experience of the past is presenting a clarion call
nuclear weapons to commence planning for securityon states engaged in the production of fissile for
without nuclear weapons. Fundamental to this effortweapons to desist from this act. This has evolved
should be the carry-over of the same policies by theinto a new danger of the possible acquisition of these
UN, and other international organizations as well asfissile materials by fanatic non-state actors to carry
individual states to pursue right now- efforts toout attacks on humanity. With sufficient quantity of
resolve various international conflicts; encouragefissile uranium or plutonium, terror organizations having
democratization and reduce economic inequalities.modern grade uranium would have a good chance of
In an era when there is increasing interest in unilateralsetting off an explosion simply by dropping one-half
approaches to security provisions, it is imperative toof it onto the other half. According to Peace
spot out that monetary and alliance factors have not,Magazine "three kilograms would be sufficient." This is
in themselves, been adequate barriers to proliferation.almost the same amount of weapons usable nuclear
No individual country's security interest is unilaterallymaterial as was confiscated from smugglers in 1994
guaranteed on the mere possession of weapons ofin the Czech Republic. Nuclear waste can become
mass destruction in its arsenal.another form of nuclear armament. The lethal
Else, there would not be global insecurity and itscombination of radioactive waste and conventional
attendant clarion call by both nuclear states andexplosives is a major source of concern. Since 1
non-nuclear states alike for non-proliferation. TheJanuary 1993, there has been 162 confirmed incidents
open secret is that even the nuclear haves still feelinvolving illicit trafficking and other related
insecure of the ugly existence of these evils.unauthorized activities involving nuclear and other
Regrettably the nuclear-haves have failed to live upradioactive materials, of the 662 confirmed incidents,
to their commitment of global disarmament.196 incidents, 196 incidents involved other nuclear
Consequently, we now have a second and thirdmaterials, mainly radioactive sources, 24 incidents
wave of proliferators much to the dislike of theseinvolved both nuclear and other radioactive materials,
nuclear giants. George Bush was quoted as sayingand 5 others involved other radioactive materials.
"The grave threat from nuclear, biological andRussia and the US should once again be called upon
chemical weapons has not gone away with the Coldto resolve to take their nuclear weapons off high
War. It has evolved into many separate threats,alert. US nuclear forces have been controlled by a
some of them harder to see and harder to answer."1"launch on warning" strategy. US warheads stand
The world community need not be told about theready to be launched while Russian warheads are in
need to return to the initial bargain, upon which theflight. No more than 15 minutes can elapse, under, the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was born; pursuingpolicy, from the time of first warning of Russian
policies of disarmament by the nuclear haves andattack and the launching of US missiles.
non-proliferation by the non- nuclear states parties toThis hair trigger alert presents the danger of an
the NPT in fulfillment of commitments under article VIaccidental missile launch caused by a false warning.
of the NPT {GC(42)/ RES/19, adopted 25/09/98}2.The U.S. News and World Report has it that "In more
The US should play the leading role by abandoningthan one instance real launch orders have been
every form of "double standard" by ushering in atransmitted by mistake during American nuclear
favorable rule based international order. The presencetraining exercises." Similarly, a Norwegian research
of nuclear weapons even by organized states daresrocket triggered a false alarm in 1995, resulting in
catastrophe as shown by the recent revelations of aPresident Yeltsin embarking on processes of
complex nuclear black market syndicate networked inactivating the launch codes of nuclear missiles
virtually all the five continents. At the centre of thiswarnings.
controversy is A.K. Khan a Pakistani nuclear scientist.Most of Russia's early warning satellites have stopped
We must not be reminded that Pakistan belongs tofunctioning or wandered out of their assigned orbits.
the second group of proliferators. These same NSGTherefore as a retired US vice admiral stated several
are the possible source of leakages of nuclearyears ago, "the chance of a preemptive strike or a
information badly needed by fanatic non-state actors.missile launch because of misunderstanding, misplaced
America and her allies should be reminded that theirauthority or accident, is as great today as any time in
war on terrorism will not yield any positive impact ifthe past."
they fail to address the problem posed by the supplyThe nuclear states in justifying their possession of
side of the equation. Contrary to popular expectation,such arms in the supreme interest of their individual
some analyst predicted that the demise of the USSRnational sovereignties, has triggered grumblings within
would induce the US to roll back her nuclearsome quarters. A case in point is the American
ammunition and focus on consolidating the norminclination to act simply in terms of doing their own
against nuclear use.thing, no matter what others think, is not steady
As a prelude to the envisaged nuclear free world, thewith the responsibilities of a sole superpower, not to
International Atomic Energy Agency should be themention the UN Charter.
sole and legal custodian of the right to carry outTo assert that what people think, believe, and act
independent and competent inspection andupon is of no consequence is a position, which, for
verification of accusations and counter accusations ofany potential proliferators is untenable. The current
possession of nuclear armament. Findings of suchnuclear charged global atmosphere coupled with the
inspections should be tabled before the UN Securitydaily political and diplomatic wrangling between
Council, it is at this level that the UN's credibility ofmembers of the nuclear club is a good recipe for a
been a neutral arbiter can be put to test; bearing innuclear hostility. To discourage further proliferation
mind that its success largely hinges on thethe security concerns of non-nuclear states needs to
sustainability of the on going sweeping reforms in thebe guaranteed by the existing nuclear states.
UN.Non-nuclear states will not be motivated to develop
The absence of a standing secretariat to overseesuch armament if they are assured of not being
the implementation of the Non-Proliferation Treatypresent or future targets of nuclear weapons.
accounts for the less than desirable results achievedDiplomacy should be seen as credible alternatives to
decades after the coming into force of this treaty.military action in the resolution of global crisis.
Therefore, the recommendation calling for theAlliance security arrangements, such as the United
creation of a permanent secretariat for the NPTStates' promise to extend a "nuclear umbrella" over
deserves financial, legal and technical support fromEurope and Japan, unquestionably made it easier for
the government of Ghana and her friends in the UN.a number of industrial nations to abandon their
Its advantages includes among other things, thenuclear weapon programs. In the case of North
precise prescription and role definition of both the UNKorea, there can never be any sustainable progress
and the IAEA in matters of proliferation of weaponsin impressing on her to abandon her nuclear ambitions
of mass destruction.if she incessantly feels threatened by international
Some countries have deliberately abstained frompolitical and diplomatic isolation.
being Parties to the NPT and CTBT for reasons bestUntil all countries join and implement the NPT, the
known to them. The government of Ghana shoulddream of a peaceful world will remain but a fleeting
articulate the promotion of multilateralism as providingillusion always to be pursued but never achieved. Our
the international framework for shaping theresponsibility is to banish from this generation the
relationship between disarmament, development andinjustices that have disfigured the outlook of the
security, based on interdependence among nationspast decades. We owe an obligation to humanity and
and mutuality.posterity to ensure continuity and preservation of
Of particulate concern is the inability of the Unitedevery form of life, the environment, and respect for
States and the Soviet Union to come to a workablehuman dignity.