| -- End Ad Box ---> | | | | In simple terms, the capacity factor gives the |
| I would like to begin this brief exposition with a | | | | amount of energy (in e.g. kWh) that is actually |
| bizarre fairy tale that was confected by two well | | | | obtained, as compared to that made available if |
| known energy experts, Amory Lovins and Joseph | | | | maximum output (= 'nameplate' capacity x time) |
| Romm, and published in Foreign Affairs (1992-93), | | | | were realized. It appears that in the U.S. wind |
| which is the prestigious journal of the (United States) | | | | generation works at maximum efficiency about |
| Council on Foreign Relations. It goes like this: | | | | one-third of the time, but this is confusing. With |
| "For example, the Swedish State Power Board found | | | | capacity factors between 0.25 and 0.35, the energy |
| that doubling electric efficiency, switching generators | | | | actually obtained as a percentage of maximum |
| to natural gas and biomass fuels and relying upon the | | | | energy is less than one-half for many long periods. |
| cleanest power plants would support a 54 per cent | | | | It might also be useful to cite some figures for the |
| increase in real GNP from l987 to 2010 - while phasing | | | | cost of nuclear relative to gas and coal. The |
| out all nuclear power. Additionally, the heat and | | | | Economist (July 9, 2005) presents estimates from |
| power sector's carbon dioxide output would fall by | | | | several sources for average electricity costs. For |
| one-third, and the costs of electrical services by | | | | German utilities the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) |
| nearly $1 billion per year. Sweden is already among | | | | gives 1.5 cents/kwh for nuclear, 3.1-3.8 cents for gas, |
| the world's most energy-efficient countries, even | | | | and 3.8-4.4 cents for coal. Similarly, they give 1.7 |
| though it is cold, cloudy and heavily industrialized. | | | | cents/kwh for nuclear in the US, 2 cents for coal, |
| Other countries should be able to do better. | | | | and 5.7 cents for gas. The International Energy |
| I called that statement completely wrong the first | | | | Agency (IEA), employing a discount rate of 5%, |
| time I saw it, while in my new energy economics | | | | argues that nuclear is $21-31/Mwh, while gas ranges |
| textbook (2007) I suggest that it and similar | | | | from $37-60/Mwh. Other sources (e.g. Massachusetts |
| contributions are misleading bunkum. For example, | | | | Institute of Technology (MIT) and Britain's Royal |
| there are a number of questions that must be | | | | Institute of International Affairs) disagree, however I |
| answered in detail before biomass can unambiguously | | | | specifically make a practice of ignoring everything |
| be classified a large- scale fuel of choice for the near | | | | originating with the energy economists of MIT and |
| or distant future. As for renewables such as solar and | | | | the RIIA, especially the latter, and advise everyone |
| wind, and probably hydrogen, they will undoubtedly | | | | reading this to do the same. |
| increase in quality and quantity, but it will not be at | | | | So much for cost, but what about price of nuclear |
| the expense of nuclear. | | | | electricity - especially to private enterprises and |
| As David Schlageter pointed out in the important | | | | households? In the case of Sweden, the low cost of |
| forum EnergyPulse (2008), "Renewable energy | | | | nuclear and hydro power, and fairly smart regulation, |
| sources only supplement the electric grid with | | | | made it possible to provide electricity to the industrial |
| intermittent power that rarely matches the daily | | | | sector at perhaps the lowest price in the world. This |
| electrical demand." He continues by saying that "In | | | | being the case, nothing is more offbeat than hearing |
| order for an electric system to remain stable, it | | | | about the "subsidies" paid the nuclear sector. Cheap |
| needs large generators running 24/7 to create | | | | electricity meant the establishment of new |
| voltage stability. Wind and solar generation are not | | | | enterprises, and just as important the expansion of |
| on-line when needed to meet energy demand, and | | | | existing firms. The tax income generated by these |
| therefore to help decrease system losses." In the | | | | activities, and used for things like health care and |
| promised land of wind energy, Denmark, voltage | | | | education, more than compensated taxpayers (in the |
| stability is attained by drawing on the energy | | | | aggregate) for any 'subsidies' that might have been |
| resources of Sweden and Germany (and perhaps | | | | dispensed by the government. |
| Norway). The Danes pay for the imported electricity, | | | | An antithetical situation may prevail for wind and |
| but not for the stability. | | | | biofuels. In Germany the energy law guarantees |
| Every member of the nuclear booster club, to include | | | | operators of windmills and producers of solar energy |
| myself, should make it his or her business to | | | | an above-market price for power for as long as 20 |
| memorize the quotations in the previous paragraph, | | | | years. This is an explicit subsidy, although it may be |
| because they provide an excellent contradiction to | | | | both economically and politically optimal due to the |
| the tiresome delusion that it is economically feasible | | | | reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. More |
| to largely supplant nuclear energy with 'renewables'. | | | | important, inexpensive electricity for plug-in hybrids is |
| They also suggest why - with electric demand on the | | | | made available. |
| verge of increasing faster than supply in many parts | | | | A more complex subsidy involves the exploitation of |
| of the world - more nuclear capacity is now | | | | biofuels. Research newly carried in the United States, |
| scheduled for introduction than at any time during the | | | | and reported in the influential journal Science, claims |
| past 3 decades. | | | | that almost all biofuels used today result in more |
| Deeper Meanings | | | | greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels if |
| For those readers who have been exposed to | | | | the pollution directly and indirectly caused by |
| secondary school algebra, the above reference to | | | | producing these 'green' fuels is taken into |
| things like voltage stability is superfluous. Sweden and | | | | consideration. In addition, there would be a substantial |
| Norway produce, on the average, the lowest cost | | | | loss of 'consumer surplus' throughout the world due |
| electricity in the world. Norway, however, generates | | | | to a likely increase in food costs. Some of the |
| almost all its electricity with hydro, which is generally | | | | intricacies of this important issue have been examined |
| recognized as the lowest-cost power source, while | | | | on an elementary level by Clay Ogg (2008). |
| Swedish electricity is produced in almost equal | | | | In these circumstances, it might be argued that |
| amounts by hydro and nuclear. As I show in a | | | | France's total acceptance of nuclear power makes a |
| forthcoming paper (2008), with this as a background, | | | | great deal of sense. As noted in the Financial Times |
| elementary algebra indicates that the unit cost of | | | | (October 6, 2006), nuclear power has provided "an |
| Swedish nuclear power is equal to the unit cost of | | | | abundance of cheaply-produced electricity, made the |
| Norwegian (and Swedish) hydro. This is not a | | | | country a leader in nuclear technology worldwide and |
| welcome conclusion for many pseudo-scholars. | | | | reduced its vulnerability to the fluctuations of the |
| But what about nuclear waste, which is repeatedly | | | | turbulent oil and gas markets." France can also supply |
| portrayed as a malicious and unavoidable cost of | | | | some electricity to neighbouring countries, which helps |
| nuclear based electricity because, ostensibly, it will | | | | counterbalance the short sighted and unthinking |
| have to be locked up for hundreds of thousands of | | | | foolishness being promoted by the European Union's |
| years? An argument that is sometimes presented | | | | directors and its Energy Directorate. |
| however is that the costbenefit of no carbon-dioxide | | | | Strange Behaviour |
| (CO2) emissions from nuclear facilities. For instance, | | | | I'm a social scientist, Michael. That means I can't |
| the International Energy Agency has calculated that | | | | explain electricity, or anything like that, but if you |
| for France - the country with the largest production | | | | want to know about people I'm your man. |
| of nuclear energy (as a per cent of the total output | | | | --J.B. Handelsman in (The New Yorker Collection, |
| of electric power) - the average person is responsible | | | | 1986) |
| for 6.3 tonnes of carbon dioxide, which e.g. is | | | | My situation is somewhat different, Michael. I knew |
| one-third of the U.S. average. of disposing of nuclear | | | | enough about electricity to work on power lines for |
| waste is balanced by the | | | | the U.S. Army during a brief period, and later to |
| The cost-benefit trade-off mentioned just above is | | | | design terminal installations for the U.S. Navy, but |
| probably worth remembering, however I prefer for | | | | although I have taught social science (i.e. economics) |
| students (and anybody else) to inform me that | | | | in 14 universities, I am still unable to understand why |
| France intends to treat its 'waste' as a potential fuel, | | | | so many people are willing to risk the economic |
| and to explain why. (A similar strategy has been | | | | futures of themselves and their families because of |
| proposed in the UK by their energy minister.) For that | | | | the drivel being put into circulation by persons with a |
| reason a law has been passed in France stipulating | | | | psychotic hatred of technological excellence, although |
| that toxic waste is to be stored in such a way that it | | | | they are quite capable of enjoying its material |
| can be comparatively easily accessed and recycled if, | | | | advantages. Something to be aware of here is that |
| at some point in the future, "new" technologies | | | | the rich will never be without reliable and plentiful |
| appear which will allow it to be used as a satisfactory | | | | energy, regardless of its availability or lack thereof to |
| input in the nuclear fuel cycle. | | | | the less fortunate. One of the reasons that they will |
| The latter provision is, as the reader might guess, | | | | never be without it is that they are fully aware of its |
| partially intended to appease or possibly bewilder | | | | importance. |
| nuclear sceptics, because technology is already | | | | Perhaps the clearest argument for nuclear power has |
| available for recycling this 'déchet', and in the event | | | | been presented by Rhodes and Beller (2000), which is |
| that the price of newly mined and processed uranium | | | | similar to the basic contention of this article. They say |
| escalates, it would almost certainly be utilized without | | | | that "Because diversity and redundancy are important |
| further debate. Of course, as noted by many | | | | for safety and security, renewable energy sources |
| comments to EnergyPulse, few persons who work | | | | ought to retain a place in the energy economy of |
| with or near uranium believe that there will be a | | | | the century to come." The meaning here is clear, |
| shortage of this commodity in the foreseeable | | | | especially if you add that we probably will never |
| future, even if the forthcoming nuclear revival | | | | possess what is known in intermediate economic |
| eventually assumed the dimensions of a Manhattan | | | | theory as the optimal amount of nuclear power. But |
| Project. | | | | they do state that "nuclear power should be |
| There are occasionally long discussions of the cost of | | | | central
.Nuclear power is environmentally safe, |
| nuclear relative to the cost of renewables in the | | | | practical and affordable. It is not the problem - it is |
| technical literature. An item that frequently appears is | | | | one of the solutions. |
| the capacity factors of windmills and solar generators. | | | | |