| Iran is not afraid of the United States because it has | | | | Saudi refinery is a very important one.. Looking |
| a better, more devastating weapon than the atomic | | | | realistically, the Iranian action while creating an |
| bomb against the United States. It is obvious that | | | | economic havoc in the United States and Europe, will |
| Iran could be of no danger to the United states if it | | | | substantially benefit Iran's economy by increased oil |
| possessed atomic weapon because it has no delivery | | | | price to $100 or more per barrel. It will not be wise |
| system and has no intention of invading its neighbors. | | | | to destroy the Iranian oil installations in retaliation |
| It only fears Israel as the U.S. proxy. It may need | | | | since it will cause more havoc globally by taking 3 |
| atomic weapons for security reasons while it is | | | | million barrels a day of Iranian oil off the market. Iran |
| surrounded by nations possessing such weapon. | | | | may also easily close the Strait of Hormuz through |
| Thus, Iran is correct with its claim that its atomic | | | | which most of the Persian Gulf oil is exported. |
| energy establishments are for peaceful purpose. It | | | | With all these easily possible actions, and Iran's |
| may mean that if Iran possessed such weapon, it | | | | historically sustained peaceful intention, a wise |
| would not be for offensive purpose but for stopping | | | | decision for the West may seem to let Iran alone in |
| intimidation by other countries such as Israel. | | | | its atomic energy endeavors in accordance with the |
| With this strategy in mind, Iran should not be insisted | | | | nonproliferation treaty which allows member countries |
| on stopping its atomic energy research. After all, | | | | to do research and discoveries in the atomic energy |
| India, Pakistan and Israel were not pressured not to | | | | field. It must be noticed that for nearly 200 years, |
| engage in such activities. If Iran is unjustly pressured | | | | Iran has never attacked its neighbors but have been |
| by the United States and Europe, there may come a | | | | continually subject to attacks or political suppression |
| point that it may have no choice but to counteract. | | | | by the outsiders particularly British, Russian, Turkish |
| Iran is in a position of wrecking the American and | | | | and American governments and very recently, by |
| European economies just in a matter of days. If Iran | | | | Iraq under Saddam Hussein with American support. |
| is pushed against the wall or its installations are | | | | Understanding the Iranian mentality regarding the |
| bombed, it may be obliged to bomb and deactivate | | | | issue of atomic bomb is somehow complex but |
| the Saudi Arabia's famous oil refinery, the largest in | | | | comprehensible. Prohibition of discovery and |
| the region, capable of refining some 10 percent of | | | | production of nuclear weapons cannot be nationally |
| the world's oil. Iran can do this by launching a few of | | | | or internationally justified or even possible. We are |
| its long range missiles accurately directed to their | | | | dealing with a technology that is over 60 years old |
| targets. | | | | and relevant materials, technology and needed skills all |
| Regardless of any counteraction against Iran by its | | | | are widely spread. United States and Russia alone |
| enemies, the damage will be done. Iran may also | | | | own several thousands of nuclear warheads. The rest |
| threaten that any counteraction may oblige it to | | | | amounting to several hundreds are owned by three |
| invade other oil installations in the region except | | | | European countries, China, North Korea, Israel, India |
| those of Iraq. Ayatollah Khamenei has clearly declared | | | | and Pakistan. Iran is caught in between. Under this |
| that in the case of American intervention, no | | | | situation, it is hard to visualize what kind of nuclear |
| American interest in the region will be spared. | | | | future would be more stable and peaceful until all |
| If the Saudi refinery is bombed, It is estimated that | | | | these nations become seriously committed to |
| restoring this refinery to its present level of | | | | destroy their stockpiles while determined to get |
| production will require at least six months and this | | | | closer to zero. No such policy is in site at this point. |
| destruction alone will cause, also as estimated, the | | | | Until then other nations sensing their security in |
| price of oil to rise to $6.00 in the U.S. and $10.00 in | | | | danger, may justifiably try to join the nuclear family. |
| Europe. In the United States, the production cost and | | | | Iran has felt for years this urgency. To a great |
| price of nearly all commodities will skyrocket, Many | | | | majority of Iranians this is a matter of survival, mainly |
| small and medium size businesses will go bankrupt; a | | | | against Israel. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty |
| significant part of the work force would become | | | | (NPT) allows the member nations to proceed in |
| unemployed and the life will become hectic even for | | | | research and development of the nuclear energy for |
| the middle class Americans. The government, with | | | | peaceful use. 2010 is the five-yearly NPT review |
| continuing disastrous recession and already operating | | | | conference; it offers a chance to impose more |
| with some over one trillion dollars deficit and with | | | | restriction in dealing with atomic energy. Hoever, |
| substantially reduced revenues, will not be able to | | | | even some non-nuclear members in better standing |
| respond to desperate conditions of the population or | | | | than the likes of Iran have been resisting. The view is |
| the protection of its global policies. | | | | that the official nuclear powers take steps to uphold |
| There would be a mistake to think that Iran will not | | | | their side of the NPT bargain which prescribes that |
| dare to attack Saudi refineries or other oil installations | | | | they must work toward abolishing their nuclear |
| in the region. We invaded Iraq with much less cause. | | | | weapons in exchange for keeping others from |
| We were not pushed against the wall; in fact, there | | | | seeking them.[1] |
| was no danger coming to us from Iraq. Iran will have | | | | References: |
| a far more justifiable cause to destroy the economic | | | | "Safe Without the Bomb?" The Economist, April 11, |
| resources of the enemy in retaliation, of which the | | | | 2009, p. 11. |