Underestimating Iran

Iran is not afraid of the United States because it hasSaudi refinery is a very important one.. Looking
a better, more devastating weapon than the atomicrealistically, the Iranian action while creating an
bomb against the United States. It is obvious thateconomic havoc in the United States and Europe, will
Iran could be of no danger to the United states if itsubstantially benefit Iran's economy by increased oil
possessed atomic weapon because it has no deliveryprice to $100 or more per barrel. It will not be wise
system and has no intention of invading its neighbors.to destroy the Iranian oil installations in retaliation
It only fears Israel as the U.S. proxy. It may needsince it will cause more havoc globally by taking 3
atomic weapons for security reasons while it ismillion barrels a day of Iranian oil off the market. Iran
surrounded by nations possessing such weapon.may also easily close the Strait of Hormuz through
Thus, Iran is correct with its claim that its atomicwhich most of the Persian Gulf oil is exported.
energy establishments are for peaceful purpose. ItWith all these easily possible actions, and Iran's
may mean that if Iran possessed such weapon, ithistorically sustained peaceful intention, a wise
would not be for offensive purpose but for stoppingdecision for the West may seem to let Iran alone in
intimidation by other countries such as Israel.its atomic energy endeavors in accordance with the
With this strategy in mind, Iran should not be insistednonproliferation treaty which allows member countries
on stopping its atomic energy research. After all,to do research and discoveries in the atomic energy
India, Pakistan and Israel were not pressured not tofield. It must be noticed that for nearly 200 years,
engage in such activities. If Iran is unjustly pressuredIran has never attacked its neighbors but have been
by the United States and Europe, there may come acontinually subject to attacks or political suppression
point that it may have no choice but to counteract.by the outsiders particularly British, Russian, Turkish
Iran is in a position of wrecking the American andand American governments and very recently, by
European economies just in a matter of days. If IranIraq under Saddam Hussein with American support.
is pushed against the wall or its installations areUnderstanding the Iranian mentality regarding the
bombed, it may be obliged to bomb and deactivateissue of atomic bomb is somehow complex but
the Saudi Arabia's famous oil refinery, the largest incomprehensible. Prohibition of discovery and
the region, capable of refining some 10 percent ofproduction of nuclear weapons cannot be nationally
the world's oil. Iran can do this by launching a few ofor internationally justified or even possible. We are
its long range missiles accurately directed to theirdealing with a technology that is over 60 years old
targets.and relevant materials, technology and needed skills all
Regardless of any counteraction against Iran by itsare widely spread. United States and Russia alone
enemies, the damage will be done. Iran may alsoown several thousands of nuclear warheads. The rest
threaten that any counteraction may oblige it toamounting to several hundreds are owned by three
invade other oil installations in the region exceptEuropean countries, China, North Korea, Israel, India
those of Iraq. Ayatollah Khamenei has clearly declaredand Pakistan. Iran is caught in between. Under this
that in the case of American intervention, nosituation, it is hard to visualize what kind of nuclear
American interest in the region will be spared.future would be more stable and peaceful until all
If the Saudi refinery is bombed, It is estimated thatthese nations become seriously committed to
restoring this refinery to its present level ofdestroy their stockpiles while determined to get
production will require at least six months and thiscloser to zero. No such policy is in site at this point.
destruction alone will cause, also as estimated, theUntil then other nations sensing their security in
price of oil to rise to $6.00 in the U.S. and $10.00 indanger, may justifiably try to join the nuclear family.
Europe. In the United States, the production cost andIran has felt for years this urgency. To a great
price of nearly all commodities will skyrocket, Manymajority of Iranians this is a matter of survival, mainly
small and medium size businesses will go bankrupt; aagainst Israel. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
significant part of the work force would become(NPT) allows the member nations to proceed in
unemployed and the life will become hectic even forresearch and development of the nuclear energy for
the middle class Americans. The government, withpeaceful use. 2010 is the five-yearly NPT review
continuing disastrous recession and already operatingconference; it offers a chance to impose more
with some over one trillion dollars deficit and withrestriction in dealing with atomic energy. Hoever,
substantially reduced revenues, will not be able toeven some non-nuclear members in better standing
respond to desperate conditions of the population orthan the likes of Iran have been resisting. The view is
the protection of its global policies.that the official nuclear powers take steps to uphold
There would be a mistake to think that Iran will nottheir side of the NPT bargain which prescribes that
dare to attack Saudi refineries or other oil installationsthey must work toward abolishing their nuclear
in the region. We invaded Iraq with much less cause.weapons in exchange for keeping others from
We were not pushed against the wall; in fact, thereseeking them.[1]
was no danger coming to us from Iraq. Iran will haveReferences:
a far more justifiable cause to destroy the economic"Safe Without the Bomb?" The Economist, April 11,
resources of the enemy in retaliation, of which the2009, p. 11.