| July 29, 2006 | | | | facilities. |
| Almost two months ago, when European Union | | | | Which brings us back to the original question. What if |
| Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana presented an | | | | Iran rejects the package of incentives and continues |
| incentives package to Iran to encourage the Islamic | | | | its uranium enrichment program, effectively telling the |
| Republic to curb its nuclear activities, I wrote a | | | | rest of the world to mind its own business and stop |
| column questioning what, if anything, the world | | | | infringing on Iran's national rights? |
| community would do in the event that Iran rejected | | | | The United Nations will inevitably bog down in its own |
| the proposal. In that column, I argued that Iran, in | | | | incompetence and no significant agreement among |
| responding that the package of incentives required | | | | the permanent members will be reached. A |
| further study, was probably stalling for time while it | | | | nuclear-armed Iranian regime is a threat to the entire |
| continued its program without international oversight. | | | | region, a threat that Israel cannot ignore. Will Prime |
| Responding to the August 22nd date put forth by | | | | Minister Olmert authorize a strike similar to the Israeli |
| the Iranian government for a formal reply to the | | | | attack on Iraqi nuclear facilities at Osirak in 1981? |
| package, many countries, including the United States | | | | Even if he wanted to, he would probably be |
| and Great Britain, declared the date unacceptable, | | | | restrained by the United States government in the |
| citing a maximum period of weeks, rather than | | | | interest of preventing further destabilization in the |
| months, for Iran to agree to suspend the enrichment | | | | area. |
| of uranium and join in multilateral talks about its | | | | Will the United States and Great Britain take matters |
| nuclear future. | | | | into their own hands, either through sanctions or |
| However, the international community, in the form of | | | | military action? Independently enforced sanctions are |
| the United Nations, has been unable to reach an | | | | probably a safe bet, but direct military action is not |
| agreement on the course of action to be pursued in | | | | likely. The Anglo-American alliance is working diligently |
| order to press Iran on its nuclear ambitions. We are | | | | with the Iranians in an attempt to quell the violence in |
| now at the end of July and the only thing that has | | | | Iraq by putting pressure on the Shiite militias that are |
| been accomplished to date is a draft resolution | | | | engaging in the recent surge in sectarian fighting. |
| requiring Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities | | | | While the United States and England are certainly |
| by the end of August or face possible sanctions. | | | | capable of executing a military strike against Iranian |
| Iranian state radio is already reporting that such a | | | | targets, despite concerns about their commitments in |
| resolution will be rejected and Iran will not be subject | | | | Afghanistan and Iraq, such a use of force would do |
| to international demands. | | | | more to increase tensions in the Middle East than it |
| In setting a deadline, the members of the Security | | | | would to alleviate those tensions. A military strike |
| Council are seeking to send the message that they | | | | would only add to the anti-American and anti-British |
| are united and they are serious. But as history has | | | | sentiment in a region already torn apart by hatred |
| repeatedly shown us, rarely are the five permanent | | | | and violence. |
| members of the Council anything close to resembling | | | | The end result is likely to be some form of |
| united, or serious. | | | | accommodation on the nuclear program, with a |
| Time and again, the United States, Great Britain, | | | | promise of additional influence on Iraqi Shiites from |
| China, France and Russia find themselves at odds | | | | the Iranian regime, along with some form of |
| over competing economic and security interests. Just | | | | international monitoring of Iranian nuclear progress. In |
| the threat of a veto can stall action and prevent a | | | | exchange, western nations will fulfill their pledges in |
| matter from ever coming to a vote before the | | | | the incentives package, including easing current |
| Council. Consensus on serious matters is seldom | | | | sanctions, assisting with WTO membership, and |
| achieved, and I expect more of the same with | | | | upgrading the Iranian air fleet. |
| regard to the Iranian nuclear program. | | | | That will set the stage for more negotiations and |
| There is little reason to expect the Iranian regime to | | | | more concessions from both sides. But in the end, I |
| accept the proposal to stop their nuclear agenda. The | | | | fear that we will see a radical regime dedicated to |
| leadership in Tehran knows what everyone else | | | | the destruction of Israel and a sworn enemy of the |
| knows, that there is little likelihood of any meaningful | | | | United States in possession of nuclear weapons. As |
| sanctions coming out of the Security Council, and | | | | long as the international community lacks the will to |
| there is absolutely no possibility of a resolution | | | | come together in the face of real threats, we should |
| authorizing military action against Iranian nuclear | | | | all be concerned about what happens if Iran says no. |