What to Expect From Natural Gas Prices in 2010

Natural Gas Powers Texasgas is a regional commodity. You can have a huge
According to the US Department of Energy, Texasdiscrepancy in gas prices from country to country,
produces and consumes more electricity than anyfrom continent to continent, because of a lack of
other state. Over half of Texas' energy comes fromadequate transportation - the means of shipping to
natural gas-powered generation plants. Texastake gas from where it's found in abundance to
produces 25% of the nation's natural gas and is thewhere it's needed."
largest producer; storing and supplying via pipeline forAs a regional commodity now, present US domestic
all regions of the country. Yet while Texas has largenatural gas prices are somewhat insulated versus
reserves of low grade coal, most of what is burnedshocks from international problems. New shale
in its coal-fired plants is brought in via train fromdeposits being drilled throughout the lower 48 states
Wyoming and Montana.provide a more stable supply and stable pricing. As a
So, it makes sense for Texas electric powerresult, LNG imports to the US are dropping,
generators to rely more on the supply of natural gasprompting the United Nations International Energy
in our back yard rather than waiting for the nextAgency's chief economist, Fatih Birol, to forecast a
10,000 tons of coal to roll in from Wyoming. It burnsworld-wide natural gas glut continuing through 2015.
cleaner than coal and does not leave behind largeIn an interview with Bloomberg News, energy
amounts of cinder and ash that require propercommodities analyst Stephen Schork painted this
disposal.picture of the current supply: "We have more gas
In the past, natural gas was usually uncovered whenthan we know what to do with in the U.S.; we have
drilling for oil. Many middle eastern oil companiesmore waterborne gas floating around the world's
commonly used it to push oil out from deposits in theoceans that doesn't have a home."
earth and then let the gas burn off (called "flaring").When prices began their slide, many gas companies
This was because there was neither large localcapped their wells and cut their production. The EIA
demand for natural gas, nor a way to safelyrecently reported in its Short Term Energy Outlook:
transport it overseas to markets that wanted it.Total marketed production is estimated to have
In Texas, the practice was very different. Naturalincreased by 3.7 percent in 2009, despite a
gas and oil have been twin commodities that helped59-percent decline in the working natural gas rig
build Texas. Natural gas pipelines stretch in allcount from September 2008 to July 2009.
directions from Texas and it has long been usedEven Qatar announced it will not pursue any new
throughout the US for heat, light, and electricaldevelopment in its North field reserve for another
generation. So, it's little wonder that in this country itsfour years.
price has long been bound to oil, a commodity in aRight now, the two big drivers of US consumption
very volatile market where prices are often shapedare its winter and its economy. This winter, an early
by world events. For this reason, power generatingcold snap increased heating demands for much of the
companies have paid more for it than coal, nuclear,country and even caused a brief $1 price increase.
and wind. Because it is the most expensive and soThough faltering, the US economy has improved
heavily relied upon, the price of natural gassomewhat since September, 2008. Because of the
determines the price of electricity.slight contraction in productivity and the early cold
When the Wave Brokeweather, prices have risen from their September,
Throughout 2007 and into 2008, petroleum and2009 low -but they are still 50% lower than their
natural gas prices rose due to a popular tide ofpeak in 2008. The EIA statistic for the January 27,
speculative investment. This drove resource2010 price at the Henry Hub in New York ($5.42
development and innovation in natural gasmmBTU) is 14% higher than the same date last year
technologies to bring gas reserves to market. Among($4.75).
these:The big new for 2010 is it's still a buyer's market.
• The growing Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) trade isWith storage levels still at 5 year highs, enhanced
expected to increase at 6.7 percent per year untildomestic production capabilities, and slow
2020. New fleets of inexpensively built ships andconsumption growth, prices are not expected to rise
refineries expanded the industry worldwide. LNG nowdramatically through 2010. EIA projects that the price
involves 15 exporting countries and 17 importingat the Henry Hub will increase to an average of $5.25
countries, including the US.mmBTU in 2010, which is $1.27 more than the 2009
• Qatar announced its goal to develop both itsaverage of $3.98 mmBTU. Remember, this is an
Northfield natural gas reserve production (fromaverage price; seasonal increases will occur, especially
roughly 54 billion cubic feet in 1995 to 2.7 trillion cubicduring the summer cooling months in Texas when
feet in 2008) and its Gas-to-Liquids capacity. Qatar ispower demand is at its height.
now the world's largest LNG exporter.For Texas electricity consumers, this means that
• Developments in horizontal drilling and rockenergy prices will remain low through for the rest of
fracturing techniques with high pressure waterthe year, though there will be some fluctuation due
provide lower-cost access to several huge depositsto seasonal demand, as stated. However, one thing
of natural gas trapped in common shale. Theseabout the near future is certain: consumption of
include the Marcellus shale bed and the Barnett shalenatural gas will increase as economic conditions
in Texas (much of it under Ft. Worth) - which hasimprove. Businesses will need more people as they
been estimated at holding 26 trillion cubic feet ofwill get back to running equipment and machinery -
natural gas and is producing 2 billion cubic feet perand they will all use more energy. As consumption
day.rises, more generators will burn natural gas to meet
In July, 2008, the petroleum/natural gas price wavethat need. Natural gas prices will rise. And so will the
peaked. Gasoline surged to over $4.00 per gallon andprice of Texas electricity.
natural gas prices to $13.69 per billion BTU (mmBTU).Long Term Solutions for the Texas Energy
The cost of Texas electricity exploded.Consumer
Inundated with high fuel prices, consumers all acrossThe best thing an electricity consumer in Texas has
America cut their travel and their energy use. In theright now is energy choice. If you sign on to a two
fall of 2008, the economy contracted so severelyyear (24 month) plan now, you can lock in the
that businesses laid off workers or closed. Theycurrent 2010 rate through 2012. Switching between
stopped using natural gas to heat their buildings andnow and spring when rates are low could save you
stopped needing electricity to power their machinery.hundreds of dollars over the next two years. Why?
This helped drive down the price of oil, gasoline, andBecause you can take advantage of a long term
natural gas. But in the case of natural gas, the bigfixed energy plan that locks in the current low
developments in LNG supply and natural gas shaleenergy price. In the near future, the EIA projects
brought enormous amounts of natural gas out of thethat prices will increase in 2011, averaging $6.00
ground. Ready to use, it now lay idle in pipelines,mmBTU as the existing surplus shrinks in the face of
tanks, and ships at sea. With plenty of supply but noa rebounding economy. That's a 13% increase in price.
demand, the price sank further.Right now, if your energy plan is locked in at.114 cent
One year after the price peak, the DOE's EIAkWh for 1500 kWh per month, you're paying about
reported in its weekly natural gas storage report for$171/month. But in 2011 given a 13% average
August, 14, 2009:increase, your bill could jump to $193.23/month. That's
"Working gas in storage was 3,204 Billion cubic feeta difference of $22.23/month or $266.76 for the
(Bcf) as of Friday, August 14, 2009, according to EIAyear.
estimates... Stocks were 562 Bcf higher than lastTo maximize your savings for these next two years,
year at this time and 513 Bcf above the 5-yearyou need to act before mid-April because that's
average of 2,691 Bcf."when the price begins its annual increase for summer
By September, 2009, natural gas lost over 80% ofcooling costs. To find a long term plan that will help
its July 2008 value and had plummeted to $2.409 peryou save the most money, go to Bounce Energy and
mmBTU. Texas electric rates fell as well.check out their Price Protector 24 plan. Qualified
Big Supply + Little Demand = Low Pricecustomers will receive movie tickets, bill credits,
Because of booming US domestic supply, natural gas'companion airline tickets, price reductions and more
price tumble has decoupled it from oil's price. Asfor paying their bill on-time!
analyst Fadel Gheit put it, "[O]il is a global commodity;