| Renewable electric power is beginning to
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| | electricity using semiconducting
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| soar. The current surge of activity,
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| | materials such as polysilicon. Global
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| which has been accelerating over the last
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| | solar PV installations have grown by an
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| few years, is driven by several factors:
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| | average annual rate of 35 percent over
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| high fuel prices; ongoing improvements in
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| | the last five years. Germany, Japan and
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| renewable power technologies; and
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| | the U.S. are the leaders in solar PV use,
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| increasing political support, which grows
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| | combining to account for 85 percent of
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| out of concern about energy security and
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| | the global installed base of more than 6
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| climate change.
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| | GW. PV installations in the U.S. grew by
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| Although renewable power is still
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| | over 20 percent last year due to the
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| generally more expensive than electricity
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| | expansion of federal and state support.
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| generated from fossil fuels, the cost of
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| | Solar PV is also on the rise in Asia,
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| renewables has declined significantly.
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| | particularly in China, which is
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| Moreover, energy investment decisions are
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| | positioned to emerge as one of the
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| increasingly made not solely on an
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| | world's largest solar PV manufacturers
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| economic basis, but with environmental
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| | and consumers over the next several
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| and sociopolitical considerations
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| | years.
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| factored in as well.
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| | The surge in wind and solar PV over the
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| It's taken a long time to get here. Three
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| | last several years is creating its own
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| decades and $30 billion of research
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| | obstacles. The wind industry is currently
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| funded by the United States and other
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| | struggling with turbine component
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| industrial countries have gone into
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| | shortages. These shortages have driven up
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| renewables, along with billions more from
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| | the installed cost of wind turbines from
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| the private sector. The effort has been
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| | as low as $1,100 per kilowatt a few years
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| marked by booms-and-busts, ups-and-downs
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| | ago to $1,500 or higher today-if you can
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| in research funding, disappointment and
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| | find them.
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| long dry periods. But after languishing
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| | Polysilicon demand from PV manufacturers
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| for many years on the fringe, renewable
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| | is now greater than demand from the
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| power is now headed into the mainstream.
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| | semiconductor business, and there is
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| Renewable power technologies generate
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| | simply not enough silicon production
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| electricity using natural regenerating
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| | capacity today to meet these twin sources
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| resources such as sunlight, wind and
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| | of demand.
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| waves. Traditional renewable power
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| | This has created a shortage and driven up
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| technologies include hydro, geothermal
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| | prices. Polysilicon prices exceeded $100
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| and biomass. Familiar to most people,
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| | per kilogram in 2006, up from $35 per
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| hydro power involves the use of dams and
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| | kilogram a few years ago. These shortages
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| running water to drive electric turbines.
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| | are expected to persist until 2008, when
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| Geothermal systems capture steam and hot
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| | new wind turbine component and silicon
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| water in geologic reservoirs to generate
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| | manufacturing capacity comes on line. In
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| electricity. Biomass plants burn forest
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| | the meantime, technologists are seeking
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| products and agricultural residues to
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| | to find ingenious ways to innovate around
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| produce steam to accomplish the same.
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| | these shortages.
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| These traditional renewable power
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| | The rapid growth in renewable power has
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| technologies account for more than 90
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| | been accompanied by an associated
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| percent of global renewable power
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| | increase in investment. According to New
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| capacity and are growing at a modest
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| | Energy Finance, investment in clean
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| pace.
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| | energy reached $70 billion in 2006, up
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| The menu is being widened with more
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| | from $50 billion in 2005. Venture
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| exotic technologies. Concentrated solar
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| | capitalists are now focusing on this
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| power plants use mirrors to focus
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| | sector as well. According to the
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| sunlight and boil a fluid to produce
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| | Cleantech Venture Network, the North
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| steam to drive a turbine. Enhanced
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| | American venture capital community
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| geothermal systems produce electricity
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| | invested $758 million in wind and solar
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| with steam made from water that is
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| | startups in 2006, a threefold increase
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| injected into the earth and heated by
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| | from 2005.
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| contact with hot rocks. Biomass
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| | Policy uncertainty and fossil fuel prices
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| gasification plants turn biomass into a
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| | are among the biggest threats to
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| gas that can be used in a combined-cycle
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| | renewable power in the short and medium
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| generator. These technologies have great
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| | terms. Renewable power options have yet
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| potential, but are still developmental.
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| | to achieve cost parity with fossil fuel
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| Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV)
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| | sources, although some wind projects are
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| cells occupy the middle ground between
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| | competitive today in favorable sites with
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| the traditional renewable power sources
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| | abundant wind resources and tax
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| of today and the promising technologies
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| | incentives.
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| of tomorrow. Although both wind and solar
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| | Solar PV still has a way to go, with
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| PV have been commercially available for
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| | current costs of PV-generated power
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| decades, these technologies have matured
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| | approximately five times those of
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| over the last thirty years due to ongoing
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| | electricity from a natural gas plant. As
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| research and accumulated know-how. They
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| | a result, wind and solar must rely upon
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| are now experiencing rapid market growth.
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| | robust and stable government supports to
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| The big winner so far is wind. Global
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| | fuel industry growth. But renewable power
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| wind power capacity has tripled since
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| | policies can be just as intermittent as
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| 2000 and reached nearly 75 gigawatts (GW)
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| | the wind and sun themselves.
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| by the end of 2006. This is still
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| | Although recent events have spurred
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| small-less than two percent of total
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| | strong support for incentives and
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| world capacity-but it is enough to meet
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| | renewable power targets, declining fossil
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| the annual electric needs of nearly 20
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| | fuel prices could make such policies less
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| million U.S. households.
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| | tenable. Especially important is what
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| Germany, the United States, Spain, India
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| | happens to natural gas prices and whether
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| and Denmark have the largest installed
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| | and when a price is put on carbon
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| wind base, but in 2006, North America saw
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| | emissions from fossil fuel-fired power
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| the fastest growth. In the U.S., nearly 3
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| | plants.
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| GW of new wind turbines were installed
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| | When considering the future prospects for
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| last year, with overall wind capacity
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| | renewables, perspective is important.
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| breaking 10 GW along the way. U.S. wind
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| | Despite their recent rapid growth, wind
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| growth was fueled by a federal tax
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| | and solar together account for just two
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| credits and state renewable portfolio
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| | percent of global power generation
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| standard programs, which require
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| | capacity. Even with a continuation of the
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| utilities to purchase a certain
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| | strong growth seen in recent years, wind
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| percentage of their power from renewable
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| | and solar are likely to account for less
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| sources.
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| | than five percent of global capacity a
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| At the same time, continuing
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| | decade from now.
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| technological advances are being made in
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| | Moreover, there are questions as to how
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| the design and operations of windmills.
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| | renewables will interface with existing
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| Asia is emerging as a center of growth
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| | technologies and infrastructure.
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| for both wind energy use and wind turbine
| |
| | But by the middle of the next decade, as
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| manufacturing capacity. Over 3 GW of new
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| | wind and solar PV continue to grow-and as
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| capacity was installed in Asia in 2006,
| |
| | concentrated solar power, advanced
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| the bulk in China and India. This came as
| |
| | biomass and geothermal technologies
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| a result of policies supporting
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| | become increasingly
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| renewables, such as China's new Renewable
| |
| | competitive-renewables can begin to make
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| Energy Law, which requires 5 percent of
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| | a more significant impact in global power
|
| China's electric capacity to be
| |
| | markets. Indeed, it is likely that
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| renewables-based by 2010. India is the
| |
| | renewable power will continue to grow at
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| world's fourth-largest wind power market,
| |
| | a rapid rate, given the prospect for
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| thanks to sustained government support
| |
| | continued technology improvements and the
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| for the sector.
| |
| | likelihood that climate change and energy
|
| Solar PV is hot, too. It works by
| |
| | security will remain important concerns.
|
| converting sunlight directly into
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